Cool Hand Cowen's huge personal gamble

DÁIL SKETCH:What has he got? Has he anything at all? Is he bluffing? Tension has been building for weeks, but Brian Cowen has stayed calm. All around, people are yelling to see what he's got.

They are worried, because they’ve bet their houses and jobs on whatever the Taoiseach is holding. He’s it. This man holds the card, and they are praying to God that when he finally turns it over, we won’t be looking at a busted flush.

The game has gone on and on. Too long, say some. Have patience, say others. Wait, they insist. This is precisely the point – Cowen is playing the long game.

It’s been fascinating, in a very frightening sort of way, if we all didn’t stand to lose our shirts. The entire nation is transfixed, waiting on the call he is about to make, growing more fearful by the day.

Yesterday, the Dáil returned after its Christmas break. During that time, the Taoiseach was under pressure to say just how he intends to deal with the economic crisis. But he’s kept his head down and said nothing. The long game.

Yesterday, Cool Hand Cowen laid his reputation on the line. “I said I’d take a month,” he told the Dáil. That month is nearly up. The Taoiseach says he is nearly ready to deliver. It’s a matter of days.

“As long as I am running this Government, I will run the Government as I see fit, as I believe it, based on my philosophy. I will run this country on the basis as I see it. We’re going about it in the right way, in my opinion.” Cowen left himself no room for manoeuvre. If things don’t work out, those words will be thrown back in his face and he’ll be out of the game for good.

There was a sense in the Dáil – it was apparent in the frustration of the Opposition – that parliament has become irrelevant to Brian Cowen and his Government. After the Taoiseach’s impassioned defence of his supreme authority, it seems he is of the view that he is the only person who can carry the fight.

After the sustained barrages of criticism of his handling of the crisis, the questioning of his leadership style and his poor efforts at communicating the problem, his self-belief was quite stunning to behold.

Enda Kenny was biblical in his excoriation of performance of Cowen’s Government. For 40 days (he held back from throwing in the 40 nights) the Government had been wandering in the “economic desert”. Wandering in the “wilderness”. People are frightened out of their wits and calling out for leadership, quivered the Fine Gael leader.

What do you intend to do about it? he asked Cool Hand Cowen, who sat, silently seething, as Enda went to town on him.

The Taoiseach faced the leadership questions head on, insisting he has what it takes. Leadership, in his book, is bringing the social partners along with his plan. He doesn’t think he is abdicating responsibility. “I believe in this approach. I believe in it . . . I believe in it,” he thundered.

He sounds very convincing.

But there is a problem, summed up succinctly by Fine Gael’s Michael Creed. In the short term, Brian Cowen needs to find €2 billion. “We will do that,” he declared.

“How?” chorused his unsocial partners across the floor, tired of hearing all the talk of social solidarity when all they get is the “una duce – una voce” treatment from the Taoiseach.

Clearly, much of the criticism in the past months has stung. Brian Cowen mentioned leadership quite a few times. He also stressed he is “acutely aware” that people are losing their jobs and are fearful for the future.

Enda Kenny offered some suggestion as to how he might bring “some semblance of economic sanity in the floundering around that you’ve been at in the last few weeks”. Cowen said he was open to all constructive suggestions in a time when a national effort was needed. But he wouldn’t take that sort of talk from Enda Kenny. What he is about for the last month is, apparently, “maximising internal confidence”. Labour’s Eamon Gilmore thought he was talking through his hat. “No plan, no strategy, no proposals,” he snorted.

The Taoiseach tried to put him in his place. “I can’t rubbish something I haven’t seen!” spluttered Eamon.

“Well, you’re rubbishing it without seeing it!” retorted the Taoiseach, with a strange logic.

The Dáil begins a debate on the economic situation today. “Statements on Delivering Sustainable Economic Renewal and Securing our Public Finances” is the grandiose title. Eamon Gilmore pointed out that the House would be debating without actually seeing the Government’s plan, which may, depending on what the Taoiseach or his spokespeople are saying, be delivered sooner or later.

Meanwhile, as the Opposition politicians grew more frustrated, the game continued outside Government Buildings as various representatives of the Social Partners gave interviews.

Has the Taoiseach psyched them out? Has he made them stew long enough to cash in their chips and give him the pot? Maybe he has reeled them in and convinced them to buy into his plan.

“I have responsibility to do this job as I believe it should be done, for as long as I hold this job,” he said yesterday.

It’s been a long game, and a huge personal gamble for Brian. If he succeeds, his stock should soar. Nerves of steel, people will say. A stubborn individual, he’s the right man for the job. But if he fails, he’s finished. Plan or no plan.

And it won’t be long before Cool Hand Cowen will be cashing in his chips.