US /MIDDLE EAST: Iran looks like it could be the first major international crisis in the second Bush term, writes Conor O'Clery, North America Editor.
In Baghdad in 1981 a war plane roared over the Mansur Melia Hotel, its bullets kicking up water in the hotel's ornamental fountain, followed by the boom of an explosion.
Word quickly spread among journalists and diplomats in the Iraqi capital that it was an Israeli plane and the target was Saddam Hussein's French-built Osirak nuclear facility.
Now the prospect of this scenario being repeated - in Tehran rather than Baghdad and with either Israeli or US bombers - is fast becoming part of the debate on Iran in the United States.
During the US election campaign Iran's nuclear intentions were not a major issue, but President Bush is now taking a more confrontational line with Tehran.
On Saturday at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in Chile, the US President said despite its protestations to the contrary, he believed Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapon and that it was "a very serious matter".
Mr Bush also declared a united front at the summit between the US and Asian allies on demanding North Korea return to stalled talks about giving up its nuclear weapons program.
"Five APEC members are working to convince North Korea to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons . . . and I can report to you today, having visited with the other nations involved in that collaborative effort, that the will is strong, that the effort is united and the message is clear to Mr Kim Jong-il: get rid of your nuclear weapons programs," Mr Bush said, referring to the North Korean leader.
The new hard line from the Bush administration was accompanied yesterday by a warning from Israel that Iran was lying in the pledge it had given to European countries that it would suspend uranium enrichment activities. "They have no intention of halting their nuclear programme, which will continue in secret," a senior foreign ministry official told AFP.
The official accused Britain, France and Germany of "blindness" for engineering the deal under which Tehran agreed to suspend by today all its uranium enrichment activities to avoid the threat of being referred to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon is revising contingency plans for attacking Iran's nuclear plants, according to today's US News and World Report, quoting officials who said the planning was routine and that Mr Bush continued to look for a diplomatic solution.
Since late summer, the US has also studied options in case Israel decides to hit Iran's nuclear sites, the officials told the magazine.
The Bush administration recently agreed to sell Israel 500 bunker-busting smart bombs of a sort that could be used in such an operation, it reported.
The Bush administration has not publicly called on the Israeli government to hold back from an air strike against Tehran, but outgoing Secretary of State Colin Powell has reportedly urged Israel to allow diplomacy to work its course.
Israeli officials have hinted about taking action but told AFP they did not see a military strike as the way forward in Iran's case "yet". Israel itself has not signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and is widely believed to have up to 200 nuclear warheads.
In Washington, diplomats believe the issue is shaping up to become the first major international crisis in the second Bush term.
Republican Senator John McCain told NBC's Meet the Press yesterday that the US should be "very concerned, disturbed even, alarmed" about Iran's alleged nuclear weapons programme. It would not be so easy for an Israeli air strike, he warned, however, as "Iran has these facilities spread out over Tehran".
The new hard line against Iran first was expressed by Mr Powell on Wednesday when he cited new intelligence that Tehran was not just working on enriching uranium so that it could be used in nuclear weapons but that it was planning to attach nuclear warheads to ballistic missiles.
Next day the Washington Post revealed that Mr Powell was using unverified information from a single unvetted source, reviving memories of the way dubious intelligence was used to justify the US-led invasion of Iraq and undermine the work of UN weapons inspectors.
At the APEC summit, Mr Bush said the US was closely monitoring Iran's activities in the run- up to Thursday, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will decide in Vienna whether to refer Iran's nuclear activity to the UN Security Council.
"We're concerned about reports that show that prior to a certain international meeting, they're willing to speed up processing of materials that could lead to a nuclear weapon," Mr Bush said.
He was referring to reports that Iran was still making the uranium hexafluoride gas that is the feed used to make enriched uranium in advance of the deadline.
"The world knows it's a serious matter and we're working together to solve this matter," Mr Bush warned. It was very important for the Iranian government to hear US concerns, he went on, adding that many other countries believed that Iran had nuclear weapon ambitions.
The European trio has proposed that Iran ban the enrichment of uranium and co-operate fully with the IAEA in return for receiving a light-water nuclear reactor for energy purposes and atomic fuel, plus future trade benefits. Hawks in the Bush administration have discouraged dialogue with Tehran and encouraged scepticism about Iran's intentions. Despite the risk of at the least further inflaming anti-American opinion in the region through a military strike either by the US or Israel, there is a growing feeling in Washington that a confrontation with Iran is looming.
Mr Bush said in April that it would be "intolerable" if Iran were to develop an atomic weapon. The New York Times warned on Saturday that there was no military solution to the growing crisis, saying "Iran's scattered and secretive nuclear programme cannot be bombed out of existence."
In Tehran, Iranian officials insisted yesterday that nuclear weapons were not part of the country's defence policies and that making nuclear weapons "could not be hidden in today's world".
A report last week incorrectly stated that Ms Margaret Spellings had been appointed Agriculture Secretary in the US administration. She was in fact appointed Education Secretary.