There is growing confidence inside the European Commission that the German presidency is willing to loosen the purse strings sufficiently to broker a deal on Agenda 2000 at the two-day summit which opens in Berlin tomorrow.
Well-placed sources say they believe Bonn is moving towards acceptance of a total expenditure on structural and cohesion funding of around €216 billion (£170 billion), down from the Commission's original proposal of €239 billion, but well above the figure being touted by the French and others of €200 billion.
But two crucial issues, as yet undecided, still affect Ireland's potential EU receipts - the steepness of the "soft landing" for the non-Objective One south and east of the State, and the still-vexed issue of cohesion fund eligibility. There will also be some concern at the possible impact of any attempt to claw back the £5 billion farm overspend.
But even a best-case scenario would still mean that the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, would be very far indeed from the £4 billion structural funds target he hinted at on Sunday. The news yesterday that he was actually talking in euros, not pounds - and thus of a target figure of some £3.2 billion - makes some sense of his statement. It is still on the optimistic side.
Irish Brussels insiders had been bewildered by Mr Ahern's comments, recalling the politically disastrous effect last time round of the upping of expectations by the then Taoiseach, Mr Albert Reynolds, and his famous £8 billion.
The western/Border/midlands region can expect some £1.2 billion in allocations if current average levels of EU-wide per capita aid are maintained. But such levels of spending will push the total Objective One spending over the agreed ceiling of two-thirds of the structural funds budget. Some downward pressure on the figure can therefore be expected.
More alarmingly, the allocation for the EU regions which are losing their Objective One status is being put variously at between £12 billion and £7 billion - that's for a population of potentially 40 million. The east and south of Ireland could scarcely expect £1 billion of that total.
Add in an optimistic £600-700 million in cohesion funds, some £80 million in community initiatives and a further £80 million from a new peace fund and one comes up with a total figure for Ireland - at the upper end of optimism - of some £3 billion.
Yet the reality is that Ireland is very much on the defensive on cohesion funding and the transitional regime for those losing Objective One status. On cohesion, some member-states are still insisting on a quicker review of eligibility than the mid-term review proposed by the Commission. And some are demanding a faster tapering out of aid levels than the six years originally proposed.
Indeed, some Commission sources were suggesting yesterday that the particular Irish problems which have been cited by the German presidency as needing special attention have been resolved by the decision to approve regionalisation. It is an argument that will be fiercely resisted by the Taoiseach but certainly raises the question why regionalisation was left so late.
The reality is that the hard cash case for regionalisation is strengthened by the day as the squeeze is put harder and harder on "transition" cash. As the latter declines the net benefit to Ireland of the regionalisation increases dramatically. One highly-placed source in the Commission yesterday put the net benefit at some £340 million. Cold comfort, however, to the east and south of the State.
