Fine Gael and Labour are running out of time, writes Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent
The Government stands a good chance of winning the next election but, more to the point, the Opposition stands a much greater chance of losing it.
With little over to month to go until the expected dissolution of the Dáil, support for the Government parties remains high and solid, while Fine Gael and Labour are moving from already mediocre positions in the wrong direction.
For Fine Gael the result is particularly disappointing. They would need to be scoring in the high 20s to have a chance of leading a rainbow administration with Labour and possibly the Green Party. Instead, their support has slumped by three percentage points to 21 per cent.
Labour has also registered a fall of one point to 11 per cent. To compound their problems both Michael Noonan and Ruairí Quinn have seen their personal ratings fall to their lowest since assuming the leaderships of their parties.
All of which is great news for Fianna Fáil, which on these figures stands some chance of being returned with the PDs, but if not, a Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition would be the only stable alternative on these figures.
While Fianna Fáil is performing very well nationally there are regional variations in its support. Its core vote nationally is 37 per cent but falls to just 29 per cent in Dublin, rising to 42 per cent in the rest of Leinster. At 40 per cent core support in Munster it is in a strong position to retain a number of vulnerable seats and to challenge for a third seat in Clare.
While there is a common view among the political classes that Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fáil perform best among younger voters, the poll suggests this is not the case. Mr Ahern's personal satisfaction rating is at 68 per cent overall but slightly lower, 65 per cent, in the 18-24 age group. He is also rated more highly by rural voters, 74 per cent, than urban voters, 63 per cent.
Fianna Fáil performs comparatively poorly in the 18-24 age group, winning 29 per cent core support compared to 37 per cent nationally. It is strongest among the over-65s at 44 per cent.
Fine Gael's poor core vote at 15 per cent nationally is just 13 per cent in Dublin and could put party seats under threat in Dún Laoghaire, Dublin North East, Dublin West, Dublin Mid West and Dublin North. It fares little better in Munster (14 per cent) and Leinster (15 per cent) with its strongest showing in Connacht-Ulster (22 per cent).
It is performing slightly better than average among the youngest voters at 17 per cent, but, worryingly, is strongest among the over-65s at 24 per cent. It is also strongest among farmers, with 28 per cent support.
The news is unremittingly grim for Michael Noonan. His personal satisfaction rating at 31 per cent is six points lower than the 37 per cent rating for his predecessor, John Bruton, in January 2001, which prompted his removal from the leadership. The number dissatisfied with Mr Noonan, 37 per cent, is six points above his satisfaction figure. To find a poorer showing for a Fine Gael leader one must go back eight years to February 1994 when Mr Bruton had a rating of just 29 per cent. If the party hadn't changed leader a year ago, it would have a leadership crisis now.
Labour's 11 per cent adjusted support is its lowest in two years while Ruairí Quinn's approval rating at 41 per cent is his lowest ever as party leader. The party's core vote is at 7 per cent nationally with a higher figure of 9 per cent in Dublin allowing it to remain slightly ahead of Sinn Féin, which is on 8 per cent in the capital. The party vote is particularly low among younger voters and compares poorly with that of Sinn Féin.
The poll brings a major boost for Sinn Féin with its strongest showing to date at 8 per cent. A breakdown of its core support - which is at 6 per cent nationally - gives the party cause for yet more optimism. It stands at 8 per cent in Dublin where the party has a number of target seats. It stands at an impressive 13 per cent among the youngest age group, those aged 18-24. It has over double Labour's 6 per cent rating in this age group, and also leads Labour among the 25-34 age group with 8 per cent compared with Labour's 5 per cent. On this figure it could win a half-dozen seats.
More worrying for the established parties is the 11 per cent rating for independents, who are particularly strong in Dublin. There are very few Dublin-based independents with a significant profile, indicating that people are prepared to say they wil vote for independents without knowing what they stand for.
The PD 3 per cent figure means little, as the party's fortunes depend on performances in a small number of constituencies. The Green Party has a core support of 4 per cent, but this rises to 8 per cent in Dublin. This will be some comfort to the party which faces a battle to retain John Gormley's seat in Dublin South East against the challenge from the Attorney General, Michael McDowell.
The idea of a rotating Taoiseach does not find favour with voters, with 31 per cent in favour, 56 per cent against and 14 per cent expressing no opinion.
Unsurprisingly, Labour voters are the only ones where a majority supports the idea, with 43 per cent in favour, 40 per cent against and 17 per cent with no opinion.
Finally, December's Budget has had only marginal effect on voters' choices. Some 27 per cent say it made them more likely to vote for the Government, 24 cent said it made them less likely to support the Coalition, with 44 per cent saying it made no difference and 5 per cent with no opinion.