Opinion Poll: analysisWhen it comes to next year's general election, the Government holds all the aces, writes Stephen Collins
The Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrats coalition is on course for a continuous 15 years in Government if the surge in support shown in the latest Irish Times poll hardens over the coming months into a solid base before the election campaign proper gets under way in spring.
The fact that Fianna Fáil has attained its highest TNS mrbi poll rating since the last general election in spite of, or maybe because of, the recent controversy over the money given to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern for his personal use is a clear demonstration of just what a grip on power the party still has.
With a €3 billion giveaway still to come in the budget, the Government now appears to hold all the aces.
The fact that the PDs have also increased their support and the new Tánaiste, Michael McDowell, has started off with a respectable poll rating is another strong card in the Government's hand.
On these figures the Coalition parties have to be the clear favourites to win a third term.
Mr McDowell was thrown into political leadership at the deep end but the emphatic finding of the poll is that he made the right judgment in declaring that Mr Ahern was fit to continue in office and continuing to support him. Among voters as a whole 47 per cent said he was right and 36 per cent thought him wrong and among PD voters he was supported by a margin of two to one.
A strange feature of the poll was that Mr Ahern's tribulations had little effect on his personal poll rating, for good or ill, yet the episode had a dramatic effect on the Fianna Fáil vote.
Some people in politics were expecting Mr Ahern to get a sympathy vote in the first poll after the controversy but a big jump in Fianna Fáil support and a minor adjustment in the Taoiseach's rating was completely unexpected.
Then there is the dichotomy between the fact that the voters, by a clear margin of more than two to one, believe that Mr Ahern was wrong to take the gifts and loans yet his rating improved slightly and his party got a massive boost.
It appears that the issue of politicians taking money is not something that bothers most Irish voters or influences their choice of party.
The Opposition parties will be scratching their heads and wondering what they have to do to score a hit against the Government. Many in the media criticised them for not being much harder during the controversy but the message from the poll is that they might have been better off ignoring the whole thing. Whether they would have been doing their duty by taking that attitude is another issue altogether.
One thing that the Opposition is clearly struggling to get across to the public is that it is capable of transforming itself into an effective government. Unless Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte can convince the voters that they can do a better job in power than the current incumbents they will have no chance.
Fine Gael has slipped a little in the poll but the long-term trend for the party is still in positive territory. The real worry from the alternative government's point of view is the drop in support for Labour. At 11 per cent the party is at its lowest rating in a TNS mrbi poll since the last election and unless it picks up, the alternative government simply won't win enough seats to get into power.
At the time of the last election Labour went it alone to emphasise its own distinctive policies but the approach didn't work and the party was faulted for not offering the voters an alternative government.
This time around Mr Rabbitte has taken the alternative government option but it seems that strategy is not working either. He has no choice but to stick with the strategy, but he has to find a way within it of making Labour's own voice heard.
The steady increase in support for the Greens is one ray of hope for the Opposition.
Although the party is not formally aligned to Fine Gael and Labour the expectation is that it would join them if the numbers were right.
On this showing the Greens are capable of gaining seats. The only problem is that they might make their gains at the expense of Labour or Fine Gael.
Sinn Féin will be disappointed with the poll because it indicates further erosion of the party's vote. The stalemate in the North has deprived the party of the oxygen of publicity on which it thrives.
There is some irony in the fact that if the Taoiseach gets his way and a power-sharing government is established in the North it may very well be the lifeline that Sinn Féin so desperately needs to rescue its hopes in the Republic.
If Sinn Féin does well south of the Border it will be mainly at Fianna Fáil expense, so success for Mr Ahern on November 24th could actually cost his party in the longer term. A real threat to the current upward trend for Fianna Fáil would be a renewed and vigorous Sinn Féin campaign.
If the Opposition wants to clutch at straws one would be the fact that Fianna Fáil is much weaker in Dublin than in any other part of the country. Fine Gael has recovered significantly in the capital and along with Labour it is neck-and-neck with Fianna Fáil. Sinn Féin has slipped back so a well organised Labour campaign could pay dividends in the city.
Another straw for the Opposition is the Government's satisfaction rating. While it has recovered six points to 46 per cent there are still slightly more people who are dissatisfied with its performance.
Capitalising on that negative rating is something the Opposition parties will have to do if they are to get back into the political game.
Their problem up to now is that they have developed a reputation for whingeing rather than offering real solutions.
The Opposition can point to a range of policies including joint Fine Gael-Labour documents but it clearly has a lot of work to do to get the positions taken seriously by the public.