The Irish potato may pass into the history books as a result of climate change. Drier summers in the coming years may make it impossible to grow good spuds, according to a research scientist.
The loss of the potato is only one of the possible changes as a result of global warming brought about through climate change, according to Dr John Sweeney, a senior lecturer in the department of geography at NUI Maynooth.
He was speaking yesterday at a Dublin conference on climate change organised by the Royal Irish Academy. Delegates heard there will be much warmer weather overall, with greatly reduced summer rains countered by wet, mild winters.
"Most of the dramatic changes will take place in the next half century," Dr Sweeney said. "The major changes are coming in rainfall. We are expecting significantly wetter winters, particularly in the west and north, and drier summers, particularly in the south and east."
Winter rains could go up 10 per cent to 15 per cent, he said, and the summers could be 20 to 30 per cent drier.
This change could finish off the potato as a cash crop, Dr Sweeney pointed out. "Crops like potatoes will suffer because of a loss of rainfall. Potatoes may be a difficult crop without irrigation in the summer."
Ready access to water for irrigation could not be assumed, and more effort would have to go into agricultural water resource management. "We are into competition for water during the summer between agriculture and the consumer."
There will also be impacts on the Republic's status as a major dairy producer, some good, some bad, he said. Milk production already declines during the summer, and warmer summers may accentuate this.
Grass will still be important for animal fodder but it might be necessary to grow maize silage to replace grass silage, he said. Warmer winters would mean, however, that cattle could be left out to graze for much longer than now. Warmer summers might also allow farmers here to grow soybeans.
Dr Sweeney was able to make specific predictions for Ireland by plugging locally collected data into a regional climate model for this part of the world. "It gives us a very regional view that can link to global changes."
We won't have long to wait for the changes to arrive. He predicts annual average temperatures here will be 2.5° to 3°C warmer in 50 years. This will transfer to the glens of Antrim and Malin Head the mild weather currently enjoyed by west Cork and south Kerry.
The down side, apart from the loss of the Irish spud, includes increased risk of flooding in winter. The Government might also want to rethink its approach to the spread of towns and cities, Dr Sweeney added. The east and south will not be the best places to promote population growth if less water is available.