EU: A major new report on Europe's environment due to be published today links climate change to a rise in the number of severe floods and heatwaves, and warns that it could spark a potentially catastrophic climatic event.
Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns are already threatening a large number of Europe's animal species with extinction and pose a major threat to habitats, according to a report by the EU watchdog on the environment.
The European Environment State and Outlook 2005 also expresses concerns about water and land resources, air pollution, marine ecosystems and biodiversity. But it pinpoints climate change as the critical issue to be tackled by policy makers, business and individuals. It warns Europe will pay a heavy price if action is not taken now.
The five-year assessment report from the European Environment Agency says that Europe has not seen climate change on the current scale for 5,000 years and notes that the four hottest years on record were 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004.
The extreme temperatures in 2003 alone caused 10 per cent of alpine glaciers to disappear. The report predicts that three quarters of Switzerland's glaciers will disappear by 2050. Europe's temperatures rose by 0.95 degrees Celsius during the 20th century and are now predicted to rise by 2-6 per cent this century causing major changes to the environment and the way people live, according to the 582-page report.
"Even if we constrain global warming to the EU target of a two-degree increase, we will be living in atmospheric conditions that human beings have never experienced. Deeper cuts in emissions are needed," says Jacqueline McGlade, executive director of the environment agency.
"Without effective action over several decades, global warming will see ice sheets melting in the north and the spread of deserts in the south. The continent's population could effectively become concentrated in the centre."
The report cites climate change as one of the causes for increasing numbers of extreme weather events such as drought, heavy rain, heatwaves and intense cold. It notes a rise in severe floods in Europe - there were 238 events between 1975-2001 and 15 major floods in 2002 alone - and increasing numbers of forest fires and heatwaves.
Climate change may not just result in a slow, creeping change to the environment but could create an abrupt or sudden catastrophic climatic change.
It says there is growing scientific concern that climate change may prove to be more rapid and pronounced than current projections. It warns of two potentially catastrophic events: the irreversible melting of the Greenland ice cap and the collapse of ocean thermohaline circulation, which are the currents of warm water such as the Atlantic Gulf stream which keep the waters around Ireland warm.
This type of abrupt climatic change could push temperatures downward in Europe and result in what some scientists term as a "new ice age". Climate change is already having a damaging effect on the marine and land environment. Rising sea temperatures have already caused some fish to migrate more than 1,000km and land-based species in Europe are also on the move.
Many of Europe's animal species are already under threat, in part through climate change and also from loss of habitat. The report says 42 per cent of mammals, 15 per cent of birds, 45 per cent of butterflies, 30 per cent of amphibians, 45 per cent of reptiles and 52 per cent of freshwater fish are endangered.
Rising sea temperatures and increased nutrient levels also bring a greater probability of a huge growth in the number of toxic phytoplankton in the sea, which are harmful to both marine life and humans. Alpine species living at the highest altitudes are also running out of options of where to go next.
To address the problem of climate change, the environment agency recommends reducing carbon emissions more drastically than currently proposed under the Kyoto Protocol. The keys to achieving this goal are reducing energy consumption and improving energy efficiency throughout Europe.
Faster development of non-carbon producing resources such as nuclear energy and renewables is now urgent as the time lag in creating new energy resources will be two to three decades.
The report also recommends that governments should use the tax system to encourage and promote better environmental practice. A gradual shift away from taxes on labour and investment towards levying taxes on pollution and the inefficient use of materials would help to reduce pollution and change consumer behaviour. Failure to change consumer and industrial practices will result in much greater economic costs when climate change becomes more pronounced.
The report also concludes that urban sprawl, air pollution and depleting natural resources also pose a significant challenge to Europe's environment.
Urbanisation continued apace in the 1990s with 800,000 additional hectares of naturally productive land being converted into artificial surfaces for homes, offices, shops, roads and factories. This equates to an increase of 6 per cent to the continent's urban areas, which is equivalent to three times the area of Luxembourg being replaced with artificial surfaces between 1990-2000. The largest loss of habitat in the 1990s was in heath, scrub and tundra, and wetland mires, bogs and fens.
In the marine environment, 75 per cent of world fish stocks are exposed to overfishing.