President Museveni is taking drastic measures to prevent an Arab style uprising in Uganda
PINK LIQUID was fired from water cannons on Tuesday, rubber bullets and tear gas the weeks before, with live ammunition thrown in from time to time, to make sure the message got across. There will be no demonstrations here.
As he is sworn into another term of office today, Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni is taking every measure to protect his 25-year rule. Those who took to the streets over the past month to protest against the rising cost of living have been met with brutal force from the army and police. At least nine unarmed people have been shot dead, says Human Rights Watch. Opposition members have been rounded up, journalists threatened and the main opposition leader Kizza Besigye beaten and arrested. He returned from Kenya yesterday, where he was recuperating in hospital from injuries sustained during one of these arrests.
That this is happening in Uganda, darling of the aid-obsessed West, has come as a surprise to many. But the man who once said Africa’s biggest problem was “leaders who want to overstay in power” has abolished term limits and used state funds to finance this year’s re-election campaign, seemingly determined to hold on to power at any cost.
Why? Museveni has a strong sense of self belief, rooted in the five-year bush war he successfully led against the barbaric regime of Milton Obote that brought him to power in 1986.
“Museveni is motivated by self righteousness rather than self interest.” says Andrew Mwenda, a prominent media commentator in Uganda. “He is a Gadafy or a Castro, in that he sees himself as someone sent from providence to save Uganda and guide it to a better future. He believes that Uganda needs him.”
A powerful cabal of family and friends, appointed to various government positions, have an interest in him staying too. His wife, Janet, is the minister for the impoverished northern region of Karamoja, while his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, is commander of the special forces. A raft of cousins, brothers- and sisters-in- law are government secretaries and ministers in what is Africa’s second largest cabinet – 71 members and rising.
At least two billion barrels of oil has been discovered in the west of the country, which could make the government $2 billion (€1.4 billion) a year once it starts flowing. Museveni may not be interested in money, but there are many who are. Now is not the time to give up power, and they will be whispering words of encouragement into his ear about the good job he is doing.
And there is some truth to that. During Museveni’s time in office, HIV rates have dropped dramatically. The economy has grown and the number of people living below the poverty line has fallen from 56 per cent to 31 per cent between 1992 and 2006. The country is also at peace.
While this may impress older voters, with tough and painful memories of eking out a living on small farms and the murderous days of Idi Amin and Obote, it doesn’t wash with a younger, more educated electorate.
The rapid economic growth of the past 20 years has been concentrated in urban areas such as Kampala, attracting young people from the countryside in search of opportunities. This has fostered huge growth in the educated classes, many of whom are far from realising their expectations. Of the more than 400,000 who enter the labour market each year, 113,000 enter formal employment, says the bureau of statistics. The rest struggle in the informal sector.
Youth unemployment stands at 22.3 per cent, with 36 per cent of university graduates unable to find work. Many of them are angered by the misuse of state resources, most recently illustrated by the purchase of fighter jets and other military hardware worth $744 million. Today’s inauguration ceremony, on which $1.3m is being spent, won’t appease them either.
Before February’s presidential election, Besigye said Uganda was ripe for Egypt-style riots. With the army firmly behind Museveni, it looks unlikely protesters could enforce regime change.
But there is no doubting the seeds of unrest that have been sown. Where they take Uganda will only become clear in the coming weeks.