Just what happens if the current round of Northern talks fails, like others have in the past? Events in London this week - the forced withdrawal of the UDP, the UUP tearing up the Framework Document and the now obvious exasperation of the two governments and the British prime minister, Tony Blair at the failure of the protagonists to engage - have discouraged everybody. Although some maintain that if relations get bad enough the parties would be frightened into serious dialogue, there is currently great despondency at the way matters stand and fears that all-party agreement will not be reached by the May deadline.
If it isn't, the governments are believed to have only two fall-back options. They could gather all the documents, the heads of agreement, the cross-Border studies etc, produced in recent months and come up with a power-sharing system to run Northern Ireland which, in the absence of party agreement, they would put directly to the people by referendum. Or they could hold fresh elections to establish a new local assembly, like that planned for Scotland. In either case direct rule will continue - a state of affairs no party wants.
While the Northern Ireland Forum trundles on in much-reduced circumstances, it is an almost wholly unionist body and thus cannot exert power. The SDLP withdrew after Drumcree, and Sinn Fein is not interested in attending. The more optimistic among us, including the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, believe an agreement is possible by March. Certainly, the sooner the better in that Drumcree III and the marching season loom on the horizon. Judging by this week's progress, March of next year may be more likely.