The advances made by US and British troops in Iraq after a week and a half of fighting have brought them to within 50 miles of Baghdad. But contrary to expectations, Iraqi citizens have failed to rise up against Saddam and his ruling Baath party, writes Dr Tom Clonan
Iraqi civilians seem paralysed by fear as the war escalates around them. Iraqi troops seem hell bent on resistance even if it means almost certain death. This would seem to have been the case with Iraqi troops attempting an armoured break out from Basra on Thursday.
Moving in a convoy of armoured fighting vehicles and T55 tanks, these troops emerged from the cover of Basra to engage British troops of the First Armoured Division in a conventional set-piece battle.
With a range of just 1,000 metres and dating from the 1950s, the T55 tank is no match for the British Challenger tank, whose gun has a range of 4,000 metres.
Pitting such inferior equipment against the supremacy of British armour and air superiority seems to have been a desperate gamble on the part of Basra's garrison.
Had they succeeded in bypassing British units to reach Umm Qasr, they would have inflicted a major blow against Allied efforts to land humanitarian aid at the port. That would have been a major propaganda coup for the Iraqi regime.
Despite its failure, this attack had a far greater significance than that suggested by its immediate operational objective.
While publicly proclaiming this unequal tank duel to have been one of Britain's most significant armoured victories since the second World War, Allied commanders are privately worried that Iraqi troops continue to show a dogged determination to fight in the face of massive odds. With many similar actions being fought at Najaf, Nassiriya and Karbala, there appears to be no deterioration in Iraqi morale.
It is striking evidence that the "shock and awe" campaign of bombing and psychological operations coupled with a supremely confident, almost reckless race towards Baghdad have failed to erode the Iraqi military's motivation to resist invasion.
The belief that Iraqi forces would spontaneously and collectively surrender to US and British troops appears to have been the cornerstone of US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld's military strategy.
Accompanying a relatively light and highly mobile invasion force, embedded journalists were supposed to have relayed to the world images of the citizens of Baghdad celebrating the sudden and dramatic collapse of Saddam's regime.
Instead journalists are broadcasting images of tired troops, stalled convoys and fierce firefights many miles short of the Iraqi capital. In military terms, Gen Franks can legitimately claim to have made astonishing progress towards Baghdad. With current troop levels, however, he cannot take the capital city until reinforcements arrive with their armour - which may take up to 10 days.
The military tactic of embedding journalists with advancing units has created a 24-hour, seven-days-a-week reality TV phenomenon. Public opinion, particularly in the US is now predicated on the expectation of non-stop action from Iraq. In the parlance of US daytime TV, coalition troops stalled at the gates of Baghdad, would be described as being "a day late and a dollar short". In such circumstances and conscious of his blue-collar domestic audience, Baghdad can never have looked so close and yet so far to President Bush.
In parallel with the suicidal efforts in battle displayed by Saddam's conventional forces, there have been sinister developments on the part of irregular troops involved in unconventional operations. Yesterday's suicide car bomb at a US checkpoint sends a message to commanders on the ground about resistance that can be expected within the country's capital.
A similarly suicidal attack on US troops in Kuwait, accompanied by the threat of terrorist attacks on London and New York by Saddam's regime, suggest that the war may escalate to include attacks on the British and American home fronts.
As British and US commanders adapt their war plans to the reality that the hearts and minds of Iraqis have not been won in the current campaign, Saddam's regime is working to strike fear into the hearts and minds of Americans and Britons at home.
With an enemy interspersed among civilians and a bitter campaign of urban warfare predicted for the coming weeks, US and British troops face the almost impossible task of liberating a people from themselves.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired army officer. He is a fellow of the US-based Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society. He lectures in the School of Media, DIT