The US economy is likely to stay weak in the fourth quarter but should stage a modest recovery in the first three months of 2002, chief White House economic adviser Mr Glenn Hubbard said today.
"I share the view of private forecasters on a first quarter with quite modest but positive growth and then accelerating later in the year," he said on a visit to the Paris headquarters of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Mr Hubbard said it was too soon to predict the final quarter of 2001.
"I think the fourth quarter will be weak, how weak remains to be seen," he said. "The stimulus that's in effect from monetary policy though should again be able to kick in by the end of this year or early next year".
He said his forecasts depended in part on approval in Congress of a stimulus package in the coming weeks.
US President Mr George W. Bush has proposed a package chiefly comprised of tax-relief measures worth up to $75 billion to help kick-start the economy, but his plan has been held up in Congress, with Democrats proposing an alternative.