Burton has fight on her hands to hold seat

Constituency profile - Dublin West:Despite their cosy alliance, a ferocious battle between Labour and Fine Gael is on the cards for the third seat in Dublin West.

Labour's finance spokeswoman Joan Burton is highly regarded nationally, a tireless worker at local level, but faces the battle of her political career to hold on to her seat.

A Fine Gael juggernaut is looming in the form of Leo Varadkar, a doctor in Blanchardstown hospital who received the highest vote in the State in the 2004 local elections with almost two quotas.

The meteoric rise of Dr Varadkar has been something to behold, ever since he was co-opted to replace Fine Gael's Sheila Terry on Fingal County Council a few years ago.

It is a support base that appears to be built on a combination of factors including solid constituency work, populist crusades, steely ambition and his credibility as a doctor.

The popular wisdom locally is that he will stroll to victory, although this is by no means certain. His highly impressive local election campaign was in a field where there were no big names, while significant amounts of money were poured into that campaign. However, he has yet to be tested at national level.

Labour is right to be worried, though. Ms Burton's performance in 2002 wasn't impressive, capturing just 12.7 per cent of the vote locally. She eventually hung on to take the last seat, just 600 votes ahead of Terry.

Support for Burton has been volatile in Dublin West. She lost her seat when the Labour vote in the constituency halved from 23 per cent to 12.1 per cent between 1992 and 1997 as the "Spring Tide" receded.

Much of Burton's difficulties are due to the rise of Socialist Party TD Joe Higgins, who regularly entertains the Dáil with his rapier-like one-liners. While Higgins secured an impressive 21 per cent of the vote in 2002, it is uncertain whether he'll do so again.

The redrawing of the constituency means he lost a substantial support base in Palmerstown. His tough stance against the bin tax is sure to win him votes in more working-class areas, although it is unclear whether his campaigns for migrant workers' rights will win him much additional support.

One person who doesn't have much to worry about is Fianna Fáil's Brian Lenihan. The deputy, who has performed impressively in his role as Minister of State for Children, is likely to top the poll, as he did in both 2002 and 1997.

Sinn Féin, meanwhile, is running an untested candidate, Felix Gallagher, a community development officer based in Blanchardstown, who was co-opted on to Fingal County Council when one of the party's councillors resigned after the 2004 local elections.

Overall, things would be much easier in Dublin West if there were four seats in the hotly contested three-seat constituency. In fact the constituency, one of the fastest-growing in the country, should have a fourth TD. According to the latest census, each TD in Dublin West will represent almost 31,000 people. Under the Constitution, a TD should represent a maximum of 30,000 people. It is an issue that is currently winding its way through the courts.

Nevertheless, these newcomers may hold the key towards determining who wins the third seat here. In a constituency which has grown by some 25 per cent since the last election, no party can be sure where the lion's share of this new vote will go.

VERDICT

1 - FF, 1 - Socialist, 1 - Lab No change

LOCAL ISSUES

The shortage of school places at both primary and secondary level has emerged as one of the biggest issues in Dublin West. It is one of a number of symptoms related to problems caused by rapid growth of the area. (The population has increased by about 25 per cent since the last election.) Lack of good quality public transport and traffic congestion are ongoing concerns. In more deprived areas, drugs, crime and anti-social behaviour are significant issues.