The British government is now resigned to the probable collapse of the Northern Ireland Executive and other institutions of the Belfast Agreement by mid-January, if not before. This was confirmed by authoritative sources yesterday even as Dr John Reid, the Northern Ireland Secretary, urged republicans to complete their "journey to democracy" and told anti-agreement unionists they had no alternative to offer.
The British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, is scheduled to hold crisis talks with the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, over dinner at Downing Street next Wednesday. First Minister and Ulster Unionist leader Mr David Trimble will also see Mr Blair next week, with the SDLP leader, Mr Mark Durkan, and Sinn Féin president Mr Gerry Adams expected at Number 10 the week after.
Despite a planned fortnight of intensive discussions, however, British ministers and officials believe the Ulster Unionists have almost certainly "set the bar too high" for Sinn Féin and the IRA to avoid Mr Trimble's threatened resignation of Ulster Unionist ministers on January 18th.
London is also taking seriously the possibility that the SDLP might pre-empt the planned UUP action by withdrawing first - possibly as a result of any UUP decision to quit the Policing Board or following any refusal by Mr Trimble to make appointments to North-South agencies due in December.
Dr Reid gave little hint of this mood of fatalism yesterday in a defiant speech to the Labour Party conference in Blackpool, where he reaffirmed his government's commitment to the Good Friday accord - tying it closely to core "New Labour" values - while launching a sharp attack on dissident loyalists and republicans.
But with the clock ticking toward collapse of the institutions of government and a journey into an unknown future, which may or may not include fresh Assembly elections some time next year, Dr Reid's main pitch was to the republican movement. To them he said this: "We believe that your leadership is committed to pursuing its aims for a united Ireland through democratic means. We recognise and welcome the steps you have taken and we know how difficult it was for you. But if you want partnership with unionists to be sustained, then you need to convince them, to reassure them."
The Secretary of State continued: "With rights come responsibilities. The agreement has enshrined your right to be treated as equals. But that means you have to behave as equals: you cannot continue to ride two horses at once. Especially if the two horses are as far apart as violence and democracy. In short, the people of Northern Ireland are asking you now to have the courage of your democratic convictions. Complete your journey to democracy."
Dr Reid then told unionists that nationalists were also in need of reassurance: "They too have memories. History teaches them to be sceptical that they will ever be given their full and rightful role in the new Northern Ireland. They need to know that you are really committed to power-sharing, and that every time it is established, genuine concerns about paramilitary activity are not simply an excuse to raise the bar once again."
To those opposed to the agreement, Dr Reid had this to say: "Where is your alternative? Argue your case. But you can't do it on the back of myths - the myth that nothing has improved since the agreement, or that violence is worse because of the agreement." They knew, said Dr Reid bluntly, "that the most serious violence today comes from those who are terrified that the agreement will succeed."
Addressing what he called "the final myth" - that people could go back to the past and unpick the reforms of the agreement - Dr Reid asserted: "Then it's my turn to say 'No'. That will not happen." There would, he insisted, be "no going back: on equality, human rights, the reform of criminal justice or "the creation of a representative community police service - the greatest transformation undergone by any policing service in the world."