THE MIDDLE EAST: Concern in the Middle East over a new military campaign against Iraq was heightened yesterday when Britain indicated for the first time that it would join in any US action.
The British Defence Secretary, Mr Geoff Hoon, departed from a policy of remaining silent on the Iraq issue when he said London and Washington had plans "to deal with the threat from Iraq".
Mr. Hoon said, however, that he was not aware of any imminent operation or plan of action.
The US Secretary of State, Mr Colin Powell, has recently joined calls for a "regime change." He has also contradicted some reports that there is "some plan on the president's desk now waiting for him to sign off on. There is not."
Regional rulers and officials in the Middle East view with increasing alarm the Bush administration's determination to launch a new military campaign against Iraq. The Saudi daily, Arab News, yesterday quoted US press reports of a senior official saying that the debate over whether or not to remove President Saddam Hussein of Iraq "is over."
Vice-President Dick Cheney is expected to tell regional leaders about US intentions during a tour of 11 Middle Eastern countries next month. The administration is, apparently, prepared to go ahead without the support of a range of allies. These reports hold that the campaign would be based on a contingency plan drawn up by the joint chiefs of staff which was handed to President Bush a few days ago.
The Guardian said the Pentagon and the CIA have begun preparations for an attack which would involve 200,000 US troops invading from Kuwait, bolstered by naval forces based in Bahrain and air units from the Prince Sultan airbase in Saudi Arabia.
However, this plan could run into opposition from Saudi Arabia and, perhaps, Bahrain. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran oppose US intervention in Iraq, and fear that this core Arab country could split into three pieces, destabilising the entire region and putting pro-Western regimes at risk.
Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Turkey have lucrative trading relations with Iraq which would be severely disrupted.
An authoritative analyst has told The Irish Times that Arab rulers are preparing to deal with the popular backlash from a US campaign which could begin in the spring, the pretext for such a move being Iraq's rejection of the US plan for "smart sanctions" or redeployment of UN arms inspectors.
