In The last opinion poll in September, I commented that the high undecided figure for party support was very likely a reflection of continued disillusion with the political establishment. This interpretation was based on two factors. Firstly, at 25 per cent, it was the highest undecided figure for 16 years - the quoted four years was my mistake - and secondly, the average undecided figure of the four opinion polls over last year - 22 per cent - was the highest yearly average in the history of the Irish Times/MRBI poll series.
Although the undecided level has dropped in this poll, due mainly to the very favourable impact of the recent Budget, and a consequent upturn in support for Fianna Fail, the overall message for the political establishment is mixed, and some unpalatable implications are evident.
This is the primary signal from today's survey, and its significance considerably supercedes that of the transient midterm party support figures and satisfaction ratings. The message also has a hint of irony.
Yesterday's news that the European Commission had reservations about the Budget and its claim that Commission guidelines had been broken brings the contrasting reaction of the Irish electorate strongly into focus.
Seven in 10 consider it to be good for the country, and our standard of living is also seen to rise rather than fall in the ratio of 3:1 as a result. A further spinoff is that satisfaction ratings for the Government, Taoiseach and Tanaiste have increased relative to the comparatively low figures in September last.
The Government therefore, when it responds to the formal edict from the Commission, will do so in the knowledge that the country at large is, not surprisingly, behind it. Its inflationary orientation has, however, not gone unnoticed, and the main unfavourable reaction, by the minority who see it as bad for the country, relates to this factor.
This survey was scheduled for the week before the Dail resumes, and when members of the electorate were approached last Monday and Tuesday the political background which confronted them was, to use coinage from another era, both bizarre and unprecedented.
Following the startling revelations from the McCracken, Moriarity and Flood tribunals over the past few years, last week's committal of Liam Lawlor to prison by the High Court for contempt provided a complex and indeterminate backdrop for respondents.
Current voting intentions (Table A) show the Fianna Fail core vote up four points since September and converts to the new adjusted figure of 41 per cent. This represents a marginal increase on the final adjusted figure over the past four months. This, almost certainly, can be attributed to the favourable impact of the Budget. That Fine Gael is down four points in the new adjusted column can to some extent be accounted for in the variation in the undecided levels in the two polls. Labour is also down in the adjusted figure, to 15 per cent.
The potential significance of the increase in support, for the smaller parties - albeit marginal in each case - Sinn Fein (6 per cent), Green Party (5 per cent), PDs (4 per cent) and also Independents (10 per cent), should not be underestimated.
This all adds up to a composite support figure of 25 per cent for non-mainstream parties and candidates, compared with 8 per cent for the comparable but not identical element in the 1981 general election, and with 23 per cent in 1997. The omens are there, but time will tell the real significance of these minor, but potentially major, swings in support.
The Government's satisfaction rating at 58 per cent, is six points above last year's average, and is also 15 points up on the September poll figures. Parallel with this, Bertie Ahern's rating of 66 per cent as Taoiseach is also up two points on last year's average and shows an increase of 11 points on his relatively low 55 per cent in September.
A similar situation applies to Mary Harney's impact as Tanaiste. She is positioned in second place on 54 per cent - an increase of three points on last year, and 12 on her September rating.
Ruairi Quinn's rating of 48 per cent represents a marginal improvement on September, and equates with last year's average. John Bruton on 37 per cent, is down three points on his September level and is marginally below last year's average.
Back to the primary message from the survey. While the level of undecided voters remains high, an outcome of some considerable relevance is contained in the responses to other questions in the survey. Two electors in every three (67 per cent) feel the fact people have lost respect for politicians is definitely a reason why many are not bothering to vote. A further 23 per cent think it is possibly a reason.
This indicates that nine out of 10 electors have reservations about the respect they have for politicians, and that it could influence them at election time. A marginal majority (51 per cent) think many do not vote because election campaigns have become boring. Of considerably more significance for all politicians is that almost half of those surveyed (46 per cent) believe many feel it doesn't matter which parties form the next government.
While the 10 per cent drop to 65 per cent in turnout over the seven general elections from 1981 to 1997 should have conveyed a wake-up call to all politicians, there are other noteworthy messages from that same period.
In 1981 the combined Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour first-preference vote totalled 92 per cent. By 1997 the figure had dropped to 77 per cent, a downturn of 15 points. Fianna Fail had lost 6 per cent, Fine Gael 9 per cent, while Labour had remained stable at its 10 per cent 1981 level. The new kids on the block, the smaller parties and Independents, had taken root, and had shared the remaining 23 per cent first preferences.
In overall terms the vibes are clear. Irish society, as it has developed parallel with our Tiger economy, is changing, and for reasons which have been apparent for a number of years, politics and the political establishment are no longer of interest to many, particularly younger electors.
The corollary is that although only a minority of politicians are directly involved in the tribunal investigations, unless all members of the Oireachtas, and particularly those with executive authority, take steps to restore credibility to politics, an increasing number will continue not to bother voting.
Alternatively, some may continue to move away from supporting the mainstream parties as they have done over the six elections up to 1997. All Governments claim they are taking action where necessary, but currently many electors perceive otherwise, and this will be evident in these pages over the next few days.
Jack Jones is chairman of MRBI