There will be at least one terrorist attack on a European target this year and either Osama bin Laden or his right hand man will be killed or captured in 2006, security experts predicted today.
Furthermore, there will be no civil war in Iraq as insurgents lose the support of the mainstream population, and Iran will back down in its nuclear dispute with the West without sanctions or military action, Aegis Defence Services said.
In its annual terrorism report, Aegis, which assesses global risks for governments and international companies, said the net was closing on the leaders of bin Laden's al-Qaeda group.
It called bin Laden a "spent force", whose only role was as a talisman, and predicted he or his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, would be "out of circulation" in the next 12 months.
At the same time, it said, al-Qaeda was showing signs of moving away from destruction towards more "earthly" political aims, meaning talks might be possible with their successors.
"Al-Qaeda is striving to cast themselves in a political role," Aegis managing director of research and intelligence Dominic Armstrong told Reuters. "There is going to be more practical engagement."
But Aegis, which correctly predicted there would be a large-scale bombing in the United Kingdom last year, said growing radicalisation of Islamist youths in Europe, combined with social and economic alienation, would mean further attacks.