PUBLIC PAY: A powerful alliance of teachers, nurses, gardaí and civil servants are likely to rudely interrupt any honeymoon the Government is hoping to enjoy during the long summer months ahead, writes Emmet Oliver, Education Correspondent.
The benchmarking report is due at the end of June and will pose a stern test for the Taoiseach and his colleagues. Although the Taoiseach prides himself on his record with the unions, the benchmarking process poses specific problems which are not necessarily going to be solved over tea and sandwiches at Government buildings.
Union leaders are likely to put the Government under fierce pressure to deliver on the recommendations in the report. That is to be expected. But what the Government may not be prepared for is the weight of that pressure.
Over the last six months, several union leaders have been keeping their more radical members in check with the promise that benchmarking will solve everything. Mention any pay issue over the last year and union leaders would wink, smile and say: "Ah, benchmarking will sort that out."
Some powerful union leaders have staked their reputations on the benchmarking process.
Comments before the election by Michael McDowell of the PDs, suggesting that nothing is set in stone in relation to benchmarking, will have done nothing to ease their nerves.
We still do not know what benchmarking will deliver, but early speculation has come up with figures of 15 to 20 per cent across the board.
The nightmare scenario for the Government is if the body recommends something like 30 per cent for every group in the process.
Teachers appear to be the group most alienated from Government and are threatening dire consequences if the State fails to pay up.
The ASTI appears to be in permanent conflict with the Government, but the previously compliant TUI and the INTO are likely to close schools in September too if the Government has not done, and said, the right things about benchmarking by the end of the summer.
A quarter of the pay award will be backdated to December 2001, but the phasing in of the rest is negotiable. That is where the Taoiseach's legendary union glad-handing skills will come in useful.