KENYA: The president has not purged sleaze or kick-started the sliding economy, writes Declan Walsh in Nairobi
It was no ordinary murder, even by Nairobi's standards. Nearly two weeks ago gunmen burst into the home of Dr Odhiambo Mbai, a respected university don. As he browsed the Sunday papers they pumped four bullets into him and fled onto a public bus.
The killing rocked Kenya's establishment. Dr Mbai was a key figure in writing a new constitution which may see a dilution of political power. Angry colleagues claimed he had been assassinated, and some even levelled fingers towards government.
Their allegation remains unproven, and a Nigerian preacher is among the suspects in custody. But the fact they were even made reflects the extent to which President Mwai Kibaki has disappointed.
Elected last December by a euphoric public, Mr Kibaki promised to purge Kenya of the corrosive sleaze that marked the 24-year rule of his predecessor, Daniel arap Moi. He would also kick-start the sliding economy.
So far, he has failed in both respects.
A spate of deaths, corruption allegations and bitter political infighting has dogged his administration. Ugly tribal schisms have re-emerged. Some rival ministers have all but given up work, concentrating instead on trading accusations of bribe-taking.
Even bribe-taking policemen, who were subjected to spontaneous citizens' arrests in the wake of the election, are returning to their old ways.
"We are only at four out of 10, which is still not a pass mark for Kenyans," admitted a senior anti-corruption official, who requested anonymity. "But it is better than 0 out of 10, which is where we were before."
It was never going to be easy for Mr Kibaki, a frail 71-year-old who spent his first months of power in a wheelchair following a car accident. He started well. Corrupt judges were cleared out. A slew of sticky-fingered state officials were fired, and replaced with a mix of technocrats and political cronies.
Inquiries were ordered into Moi-era scams, such as the Goldenberg affair. The commission, a beef tribunal-style investigation, recently entered its 76th day, and has been uncovering details of up to $1 billion in state theft.
In the bedraggled capital, Nairobi, flowers were planted on street verges, and people found they could obtain a birth certificate or a passport without greasing any palms.
Then it started to go wrong. Vice-president Michael Wamalwa ( 71) recently died in a London hospital. He was the fifth government member to leave office in a coffin - others died earlier from plane crashes, flooding, cancer and diabetes.
The string of deaths prompted jibes that State House resembled a funeral parlour more than a power centre. But Mr Wamalwa's death may also have represented a missed opportunity.
Although the cause of death was vague, he was treated by an HIV/AIDS specialist and died from a condition related to the excessive use of anti-retroviral drugs. The secrecy was "a missed chance for a powerful lesson", said Kariuki Njenga, a Kenyan academic living in the US.
But bad politics more than bad karma have stalled Mr Kibaki's reform agenda.
In opposition, his team was a patchwork of former rivals who united to oust Mr Moi. In power the cracks between then have explosively re-emerged.
The deepest rift is between Mr Kibaki's camp and the dynamic Public Works Minister, Raila Odinga. In a pre-election pact, Mr Kibaki promised to water down the vast powers accumulated by Mr Moi. Now he seems to be having second thoughts, and Mr Odinga is furious.
The bitter clash, which has worrying tribal overtones, has spilled over into the Constitutional Review conference. At a tourist hall outside Nairobi, delegates from opposing sides are openly warring. Mr Kibaki's side comes mostly from the Kikuyu tribe, Mr Odinga's from the Luo. Obstruction of debates and bribe-taking are rife.
Review chairman Prof Yash Pal Ghai admitted he was "extremely disillusioned". He said: "Our work could be over in a couple of weeks if they wanted. Instead delegates come with allegations they are being bribed to delay the process." The Mbai murder has heightened tensions at the conference. An adviser to Mr Odinga, he reported death threats only a few weeks ago. Now other delegates complain they, too, are being targeted.
Foreign donors believe Kenya is on the path to recovery. Last week the Minister of State at the Department of Foreign Affairs, Tom Kitt, was in Nairobi as part of an EU team to announce a five-year, €225 million aid package.
And government officials insist they are quietly working behind closed doors to bring change. But until the political intrigues are resolved, results seems unlikely. And due to the political mudslinging, economic revival is "not even on the back seat, it's in the boot," Robert Shaw, an economic analyst, said.
Up to now Kenyans have given Mr Kibaki the benefit of the doubt. But now impatience is swelling.
"The honeymoon period is over," Mwalimu Mati, of corruption watchdog Transparency International, said. "Now it's time to deliver."