ONE feature to which I have frequently referred when interpreting the findings of political - and indeed commercial - research is the crucial importance of taking into account the relevant background against which the survey was conducted.
In the last comparable opinion poll in September, it was evident that a relatively large number of electors had been influenced by the various coalition options which had just been aired, many having seen these in the broad context that the next general election was on the horizon.
Three months later - an eternity in Irish public life - fast moving clouds threaten the political landscape to the extent that the current survey was conducted in a highly contentious environment.
Interviewing took place on Thursday and Friday of last week, five days after the resignation of Michael Lowry and the subsequent nomination of Alan Dukes as Minister for Transport, Energy and Communications, following the revelation of details of the Price Waterhouse report for Dunnes Stores. It was completed before the publication of the Book of Estimates and before the London meeting between John Bruton and John Major.
In the light of this atypical and turbulent background, it is not at all surprising that a noticeable change has taken place in party support terms since the September opinion poll and indeed in the perception and consequent ratings of the Government and the party leaders.
The main beneficiaries are Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats, up one and five points to their current levels of 46 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. Fine Gael attracts 24 per cent support, while Labour's 10 per cent equates with its June impact, but is down three on September.
Democratic Left and the Green Party are on 2 per cent. In more strategic terms, the respective party positions are set out below.
Fianna Fail: The party's net impact of 46 per cent is based on a core improvement of two points from 36 per cent to 38 per cent (Table A), which is consistent with the party leader's significantly improved rating. This represents strong evidence that Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fail have made a favourable impact among the electorate in their reaction to the Dunnes Stores affair.
Whether this represents the start of a trend cannot be seen as definite at the moment, and the opinion polls in the spring should provide some clarification.
In general terms, it would appear that Fianna Fail has gained from the undecided group, which is down 2 per cent since September. If this is so - and we must await confirmation in a few months - it would indicate an early attack on the crucial floating vote before next year's election.
However at this juncture, considerable volatility can be expected and the possible direction and location of the floating vote element will not become clear for quite a few months yet.
It is far too early to draw any positive conclusions from the current political skirmishing. There is also some evidence the party has gained support in south Dublin and lost some in north Dublin since September.
Fine Gael: The first significant characteristic of the Fine Gael impact in this survey is that its core vote is identical to that of September - 20 per cent. In other words, the party's basic vote has remained firm and the down turn of one point in net support to 24 per cent is accounted for by the fact that the undecided element has decreased since September (see Fianna Fail impact), and the conversion to 24 per cent was made on a smaller base.
Since the party's support level has remained quite constant throughout 1995 and 1996, one must ask whether this reflects an inability to as yet attract any potential floating voters.
Labour: The drop of two points in the Labour core vote since September to a level which is identical to the party's June figure, is not, at this stage, significant and is symbolic of the volatility which has characterised the party's performance in 1995 and 1996. A closer inspection of the data shows the party has regained some ground in north Dublin since September and has lost support in Munster over the same period.
Progressive Democrats: PD core support is at its highest level since November 1993 - shortly after Mary Harney took over as leader - and is currently at a net 11 per cent. This can very probably be attributed to a combination of the residual effect of the party's recent conference and the media - impact of the party leader, which is also reflected in high satisfaction ratings.
It is possible that the figures represent the first real indication of the leader's capacity to transfer - something of her personal appeal into actual voting behaviour. However, it is much too early to make any definitive longer term prediction on the PD potential in next year's general election.
Other parties: The survey also indicates that support for Democratic Left, the Green Party and others is holding up consistently.
The survey illustrates in greater detail than heretofore the satisfaction ratings of the Government and party leaders and includes dissatisfaction levels and the net position in each case.
It is evident over the five opinion polls in the life of the present administration, from February 1995 to the most recent in September, that net ratings in all instances showed a gradual deterioration, albeit at varying base levels.
This is probably due to the fact that the Government and all main party leaders are under consistent public scrutiny via the national media which, by any standards, represents a very formidable criterion.
The first real blip arrived in the current opinion poll, following the revelations of the past few weeks. The clear victim is the Government per se, which has a minus 12 rating compared with minus four in September and plus two in February 1995. This is consistent with three electors in every four feeling the Government has been damaged by Michael Lowry's resignation and the reasons attached.
However, the damage would appear to be purely in perception terms, since no party in Government has suffered unduly in party support terms. However, large majorities among supporters of all parties hold the view that the Government was damaged.
In overall terms, almost half disapprove of the Taoiseach's handling of the situation, with rather more than a third approving. While three in every five Fine Gael supporters are happy with the Taoiseach in this respect, three in every five disapprove, as do majorities of Fianna Fail and PD supporters.