Syria: The ruling Baath Party is meeting to discuss reforms in Syria, writes Michael Jansen.
Five years after Dr Bashar Assad succeeded his father as president of Syria, the ruling Baath Party is to debate a reformist agenda at its 10th congress in Damascus from June 6th to 9th.
In an address to parliament in February, Dr Assad promised that this congress would be a "turning point", suggesting a change in leadership.
When in March he announced the pull-out of Syrian troops from Lebanon, he spoke of the "great leap" to be taken by the congress, implying a change in political direction. But Dr Assad warned that the party's old guard is well entrenched and determined to hang onto power.
This was clearly demonstrated in branch polls where virtually all stalwarts were re-elected.
To counteract the influence of the long-standing members, Dr Assad invited reformers and intellectuals from outside the party to attend the congress. They argue that if the party does not transform itself, there could be serious US pressure for "regime change". One of the leading neo-conservatives in the Bush administration, Elizabeth Cheney, the vice-president's daughter, recently met members of the Syrian-opposition-in-exile. But Damascus-based opposition figures reject external interference.
Hassan Abdul-Azim, head of a coalition of banned leftist parties, stated, "we refuse regime change forced by a foreign power".
Once the congress chooses a new leadership, which is likely to include reformists, it is expected to endorse a law lifting the prohibition on parties outside the National Progressive Front, the Baath-dominated grouping of 10 socialist parties. This would break its monopoly of power. Bourgeois parties, Nasserites and a moderate Islamist party will be allowed to take part in politics, but the Muslim Brotherhood, which waged a bloody campaign in the 1980s against the Baath Party, would not be permitted to function. Its exiled leaders are returning to the country.
Dr Assad said there could be multi-candidate elections, including for the presidency, by the time his term ends in 2007.
The congress is also to debate a resolution ending the party's commitment to a centrally planned and managed economy and embracing the free market.
Syrian economic reformers told The Irish Times that the system must be transformed if the country is to join the global economy and compete in the world market place. However, Syria is unlikely to adopt unfettered capitalism, an authoritative figure told The Irish Times.
"Growth should be balanced with allocating resources through the social services to alleviate poverty," he asserted.
In his view, the EU should help reformers by setting a date for the signing of the association agreement.
This would give them leverage with those in the Baath Party who seek to preserve the status quo. The congress is also meant to liberalise the publishing law, lifting restrictions on Syrian media.
Since Dr Assad inherited the presidency, he has opened up the country a great deal, but has not been able to meet Syrian demands for economic liberalisa- tion and democratic pluralism. The "Damascus spring" reform of 2001 failed and was followed by a crackdown on key reformers.
Although Dr Assad did not create the momentum for thoroughgoing change then, he has been preparing the ground for a "Damascus summer". He has transformed the political climate in the country by easing up on critics of the regime, opening the door to imported goods, and freeing hundreds of political prisoners.
Last summer Dr Assad took on entrenched elements of the party by purging 440 senior army officers, edging out the chief of staff, Gen Imad Aslan, and naming his brother-in-law Asef Shawkat as head of military intelligence. Dr Assad also put his brother, Maher, in charge of a key military unit.