If one was to accept the verdict of British newspapers, which have campaigned against genetically modified (GM) foods, the scientist who claims such foods cause damage to health could have his reputation restored after more than a year of criticism from the scientific community.
Speculation has intensified in recent days that Britain's leading medical journal, the Lancet, is about to publish research by Dr Arpad Pusztai (68) showing what he considered to be "alarming changes" in the guts of rats fed with GM potatoes.
The research, which is expected to appear after the customary review by three sets of experts, is understood to show the rats developed a thickening of their stomach linings, which became inflamed.
Dr Pusztai's reputation came under attack in August 1998 when he claimed GM food could weaken the rats' immune system, stunt growth and damage internal organs. He said he would not eat GM food after seeing the results. Then working at the Rowett Institute in Aberdeen, he had fed GM potatoes to the rats for 100 days. The potatoes were produced for the experiment, with similar modifications to those developed by commercial food producers to make crops resistant to pesticides.
However, biotech companies, including Monsanto, insisted such GM varieties would never be developed commercially as some of their biochemical constituents were known to cause undesirable effects.
Within days, the Hungarian scientist - an authority on plant substances known as lectins, who has published 270 scientific papers - was suspended. He was soon retired from the institute after his employers ruled his evidence was incomplete.
The institute referred to "the release of misleading information about issues of such importance to the public and the scientific community". The government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Robert May, accused him of violating "every canon of scientific rectitude".
Dr Pusztai insisted he had been forced to release results early. A joint statement by 17 prominent scientists - many of whom are against GM foods - backed him early this year. In May, however, his work was heavily criticised in a report by an anonymous committee from the Royal Society, Britain's most authoritative scientific body.
It said "no conclusions should be drawn" from Dr Pusztai's work, which was "flawed in many aspects of design, execution and analysis".
Dr Pusztai continued to make made numerous public appearances, including one in Ireland, and his campaign for vindication was boosted by a meeting with Prince Charles, a strident anti-GM campaigner, who said Dr Pusztai had been treated cruelly. After five months of rumour, the Lancet has confirmed the intention to publish Dr Pusztai's research. Though not among the heavyweight scientific journals, the Lancet is undoubtedly influential. A spokesman for the British government's GM Foods Unit said yesterday: "Publication of research in the Lancet should ensure that it will receive the appropriate scrutiny and informed criticism from the scientific community.
"This is in line with the Royal Society's recommendation, with which the government totally concurs. Research scientists should subject their findings to peer review before release into the public domain."
Most significantly, publication is likely to prompt others to attempt to replicate the research. If replication materialises, Dr Pusz tai could consider himself vindicated.
