Amid claim and counterclaim, peace can be arduous

In the Seanad on Thursday the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, offered a Shavian encapsulation of why the peace process…

In the Seanad on Thursday the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, offered a Shavian encapsulation of why the peace process seems to be in such a constant state of peril. "Peace is not only better than war, but infinitely more arduous," he told the senators, quoting Bill Clinton quoting George Bernard Shaw.

Utilising a trusted metaphor, he added that every time pro-Belfast Agreement politicians overcame a particularly challenging difficulty "a new and steeper slope appears". But the agreement was a "robust" animal. It would surmount the peaks of policing, demilitarisation and North-South Ministerial Council bans, he predicted.

The sturdiness of the agreement is being challenged once again. Republicans are very cross. Senior Sinn Fein personnel over the past week have been bad-mouthing Mr Mandelson regularly and attempting to create divisions between him and his Prime Minister, Tony Blair. They claim he welshed on pledges on Patten and demilitarisation made at Hillsborough in May that led to the breakthrough IRA commitment to put arms beyond use.

This is the biggest crisis to afflict the process, according to Sinn Fein. A number of sources have said meetings between Mr Martin McGuinness and Mr Mandelson are pointless because they end up in "blazing rows.

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The extent of the Sinn Fein briefing against Mr Mandelson is causing concern to the two governments. People are mindful of how Sinn Fein was similarly exercised against British politicians in the period before the end of the first IRA ceasefire in 1996.

"The dangers for the peace process are blatantly obvious, and there are huge dangers at the moment," said one senior Sinn Fein source this week. But he was careful not to suggest that the IRA ceasefire was in danger of collapse, although he said the agreement was in such danger.

With Mr Mandelson allegedly dishonouring pledges made in May, something which he denies, the source said there was little likelihood of the IRA re-engaging with Gen de Chastelain in November or December, a move that would immediately end Mr David Trimble's ban on Mr McGuinness and Ms Bairbre de Brun attending North-South Ministerial Council meetings.

Sinn Fein believes its court challenge to Mr Trimble's ban will be successful, a result that would be embarrassing for the First Minister. Equally, Mr Trimble, a constitutional lawyer, says the law is with him. Mr Trimble took consolation from the fact that Sinn Fein is pursuing the NSMC issue through the courts, a variation of jaw-jaw being better than war-war.

Ultimately, the IRA being back in talks with the general appears to hinge on a further scaling down of the British army presence in Northern Ireland, and on policing. Sinn Fein is pushing for the British to take a monumental gamble on demilitarisation: it wants a major reduction in the security presence in south Armagh, in what the tabloids like to call republican Bandit Country.

With the threat from the "Real IRA" and the Continuity IRA, British security chiefs are reluctant to start dismantling the army towers on the south Armagh hills. The republican counter-argument is that demilitarisation in south Armagh would be such a significant and symbolic gesture it would further sideline the dissidents and prove to even hardline republicans that the Belfast Agreement was working.

The so-called British "securocrats" will need some persuading on this one.

On Thursday the Police (Northern Ireland) Bill, 2000, became law although the Police Service of Northern Ireland title will not come into effect until autumn next year. The SDLP says it wants clarity and certainty on key elements of the Bill such as the new name and symbols, the Special Branch, and when the full-time RUC reserve will be disbanded.

Mr Mandelson has indicated that he will provide considerable clarity when he publishes the implementation plan for the Bill, most likely in mid-December. He insists he will not, however, budge on the nationalist demand for the Policing Board to have retrospective powers of inquiry into previous RUC actions because, he says, that was not part of Patten.

Mr Mandelson also rejects the nationalist claim - made most strongly at the moment by Sinn Fein - that the new service will not be properly accountable to the Policing Board. The service will be the most accountable on these islands, says Mr Mandelson in exasperated tones, adding that while he is sympathetic to nationalist and republican concerns, he must also keep Mr Trimble on side.

It's a very tricky balancing act, but Dublin is maintaining the pressure on London to devise a formula that would meet the bulk of nationalist demands. ein if they call the policing issue wrong, but as Mr Mallon said, if the Bill is workable, the SDLP will work it.

Sinn Fein dismisses the new legislation as "Mandelson's Policing Bill". The Sinn Fein vice-president, Mr Pat Doherty, yesterday urged young Catholics not to join the new force because it would just be "a reincarnation of the RUC". None the less there is still some lingering official hope that the implementation plan might be strong enough to, at least, make it difficult for Sinn Fein to justify rejecting the reform package, even if it isn't the full Patten.

A December visit by President Clinton, which has not been ruled out, might concentrate minds. And watch out for a fresh buzzword in the political lexicon: acquiescence. While endorsement might be too much to expect of the SDLP, its qualified agreement to test the Bill is possible, London and Dublin believe.

British and Irish sources concede that getting Sinn Fein grudgingly to do the same appears an impossible mountain to climb. Given the republican mood, it's a tribute to their optimism and resolve that they haven't abandoned hope of doing so.