IRAQ: The firebrand Iraqi cleric, a brilliant tactician, has succeeded over the past two weeks in donning the mantle of national hero, writes Michael Jansen.
The continuing struggle over possession of the Imam Ali Shrine in Najaf is the central engagement in the battle for the hearts, souls and political muscle of Iraq's majority Shia community.
While US forces are conducting a military offensive at Najaf and other restive Shia cities in the south, the main political protagonist is the interim Iraqi government, which is trying to put some distance between itself and Washington, which has alienated 82 per cent of Iraqis by failing to deliver security, electricity, water, and jobs over the past 16 months.
Poor Shias, who initially welcomed US troops in April 2003, have been hard hit by these failures and have rallied to the cause of the firebrand cleric Mr Moqtada al-Sadr.
This leaves three Shia contenders on the field of battle: Dr Iyad Allawi, the interim Iraqi Prime Minister; Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the most senior Iraqi Shia cleric, and Mr al-Sadr, an upstart junior cleric who did not even finish his studies at the Najaf seminary.
Dr Allawi, a secular Shia, former Baathist, and Central Intelligence Agency asset, belongs to the dominating clique of opposition figures who returned to Iraq after decades in exile. To remain in office he relies on the political backing of the Bush administration and the firepower of its 130,000 troops. Dr Allawi's government, staffed by returnees, has not shown it can rule democratically by enlisting domestic political factions and forces which have emerged since the fall of the Baath party.
Furthermore, Dr Allawi and his US backers have been fighting with both hands loosely tied behind their backs because they dare not storm the shrine. Repeated threats that Iraqi troops would clear the shrine of Mr al-Sadr's militia followed by pledges that force would not be used have seriously undermined the government's standing.
Ayatollah Sistani (73) is widely revered by Iraq's Shias as a marja, a figure worthy of emulation, and as a source of guidance. He belongs to the "quietist" school of Shia clerics, which holds that they should not play a direct role in politics and has enjoined Iraqi Shias not to resist the US occu- pation violently. At the beginning of the latest crisis in Najaf, the ayatollah, who represents the older generation, professionals and merchants, left the holy city for London where he is receiving medical treatment. By abandoning Najaf at this crucial juncture, he has surrendered a great deal of his credibility. If prolonged, his absence could spark a power struggle among his four potential successors and their supporters. By bickering with Mr al-Sadr's officials over an inventory of the shrine's silver, the ayatollah's representatives have postponed the withdrawal of Mr al-Sadr's militiamen, putting the shrine at risk from US bombardment of the area.
Mr al-Sadr is a thirtyish, rankless cleric who has risen to national and international prominence since the fall of the Baathist regime. His constituency is under-educated, unemployed and impatient Shia youth, particularly in the slums of Iraq's cities. He is the grandson and nephew of two highly respected ayatollahs and wears the black turban of a sayyid, a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. His followers have conferred upon him the title of hajatolislam, the equivalent of a Christian bishop.
On the strategic plane, he plays on both religious and nationalist sentiments. He projects the notion that the Shias' long-awaited Mahdi, or messiah, will soon appear and lead Iraqis to freedom and governance by right-minded Shia clerics. Although Mr al-Sadr's ultimate political objectives are the withdrawal of foreign forces and the installation of a regime modelled on that of Iran, he insists that Arab Iraq remains independent from Aryan Iran.
A master tactician, he has succeeded over the past two weeks in donning the mantle of national hero and transforming the struggle over the shrine into a decisive battle in the campaign being waged by all Iraqi resistance forces against the US.