Having cleared only 90 per cent of the problems surrounding the relationship between IRA decommissioning and the setting-up of the Northern executive - to use the Taoiseach's own measure of agreement - is the declaration a success or a failure?
That is the big question raised by the four-page document published by the Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister yesterday, in which only four paragraphs are devoted to the most intractable obstacle which has bedevilled the peace process for almost five years. After four days and three nights of the most intensive, and inclusive, talks in Hillsborough Castle, the two leaders failed to secure the full agreement of Sinn Fein.
Mr Ahern, nonetheless, sees the glass as being half full, rather than half empty. He left Hillsborough to host a State dinner for the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Mr Dennis Hastert, believing Sinn Fein will be able to convince the IRA to accept the declaration within the next 10 days.
The "basis for agreement" commits all parties, including the two leaders, to a final round of meetings on April 13th to sign-off formally on the declaration. In reality, however, Mr Ahern expects strong signals will have been given by Sinn Fein by then that the remaining 10 per cent of the declaration can be completed.
The Taoiseach's optimism is based on three factors. Firstly, throughout the many hours of talks with Sinn Fein, the party leadership never rejected the proposals being put forward. Mr Adams and others constantly stated that they could not deliver IRA decommissioning. They could not meet Mr David Trimble's demand for an actual event prior to the setting up of the executive.
Secondly, at no stage, according to Government insiders, did Sinn Fein state that arms could not be put "beyond use" voluntarily. Thirdly, it never said it would not participate in a collective act of reconciliation. Sinn Fein, at all times, was fully engaged in the negotiations and, furthermore, seemed fully wedded to the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement, sources said.
There are several reasons why the Taoiseach sees the declaration as more of a success than a failure. For one thing, he was largely instrumental ail leader and Taoiseach, in forcing Sinn Fein to confront the IRA "obligation" to make a start to the decommissioning. Secondly, he remained consistent in his stance that the First Minister, Mr David Trimble, needed such a gesture contemporaneously with the devolution of powers to the new Northern government. And, in the days of much talk about "soft landings", Mr Ahern believes he has offered the republican movement as much cover as possible for its first act of decommissioning. The word "decommissioning", in fact, is not mentioned at all in the four key paragraphs of the declaration.
It was the Taoiseach who put forward the idea of "a collective act of reconciliation", the day on which the IRA would put "some arms beyond use, on a voluntary basis, in a manner which will be verified by the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning".
In a further effort to soften the vehicle for decommissioning voluntarily, there will be moves on "normalisation and demilitarisation in recognition of the changed situation on security" on apparently the same day. There will also be ceremonies of remembrance of the victims of violence.
But if the glass, in Mr Ahern's view, is more full than empty, the two leaders have left a lot of difficulties to be solved between now and April 13th. No definition has been given to sequencing of the devolution of powers to the new ministers and executive and putting arms beyond use. That is why that loose phrase "around the time of the act of reconciliation, powers will be devolved and the British-Irish agreement will come into force" was put into the declaration. The timing could not be agreed. Neither could the quantity or quality of the arms to be put beyond use on that day.
Around 6 a.m. yesterday, when Mr Blair's spokesman was so optimistic with journalists, the two governments thought the deal was all but done. It was only some hours later when they heard the Sinn Fein chairman, Mr Mitchel McLaughlin, stating on radio that more time was needed, that they decided that they could not secure all-party agreement to the plan.
The decision to publish the declaration as "a basis for a agreement" was taken towards lunchtime to hold on to the 90 per cent consensus achieved, to offer hope to the people of Northern Ireland and to nail down Mr Trimble's agreement to the plan.
The Taoiseach's optimism that a deal can be done is based primarily on the assessment that Sinn Fein needs to bring an agreement, negotiated at the top, to the ground levels of the republican movement before it can proceed.
The most hopeful, indeed remarkable, feature of yesterday's unsigned declaration was the care and sensitivity which Mr Trimble and Mr Adams accorded to each other's constituencies with their choice of words.