MIDDLE EAST: The new Palestinian president can only succeed with Israel's help, writes Michael Jansen
The Palestinian president-elect, Mr Mahmoud Abbas, won Sunday's election by a landslide but did not secure a convincing enough popular mandate to make him a strong leader.
Although he campaigned vigorously - with the Fatah movement, which he helped found 40 years ago, mobilised effectively behind him - Palestinian voters did not turn out in large numbers to give him the broad mandate he sought.
About 70 per cent of the 1.1 million registered voters cast ballots but only 10 per cent of 660,000 unregistered but eligible voters took part in the poll, bringing down the overall participation rate to 52 per cent. Mr Abbas therefore enjoys the support of 30-32 per cent of Palestinians.
By contrast, his main rival, Dr Mustafa Barghouti, who conceded defeat and called the election a victory for the Palestinian people, achieved nearly 20 per cent, almost double the percentage won by the candidate who contested the 1996 election against Yasser Arafat.
The election is seen as a major boost for Palestinian democracy. As one Palestinian quipped: "This serves as proof that we do not follow the 99 per cent Soviet pattern and that we may eventually have a closely contested presidential poll."
Mr Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, requires overwhelming backing for the major tasks he must now perform. Officials also hoped for a large turn-out because it would demonstrate the democratic credentials of the Palestinian people and enhance his standing internationally.
According to some Palestinian analysts, both the Islamic Hamas movement and Israel are pleased with the election result because Mr Abbas has emerged as a weak president. Hamas does not want him to be in a position to curb the actions of its military wing, particularly at a time when the movement's own standing has fallen.
However, opinion surveys show that a majority of Palestinians want Hamas to end its attacks on Israeli targets which invite bloody retaliation against Palestinians. Furthermore, Hamas's call for a boycott of the election was unpopular in both the West Bank and Gaza.
For the time being, the movement has agreed to co-operate with Mr Abbas. This means Hamas may agree to a cessation of operations against Israel. Mr Abbas achieved this during his brief stint as prime minister in 2003 but it was undermined by uninterrupted Israeli military actions in Palestinian areas.
Palestinian analysts argue that Israel favours Mr Abbas, in the belief he cannot deliver on Palestinian commitments under the "road-map" peace plan. If he fails, Israel will not be called upon to honour its obligations.
Israel, they say, prefers to stick with unilateral initiatives, like its plan for "disengagement" - the withdrawal of troops and settlers from the entire Gaza Strip which can be implemented without Palestinian input.
Before the election, Mr Abbas said he would keep Mr Ahmed Qurei as prime minister. Some Palestinians are likely to be disappointed because they believe there can be no end to nepotism, corruption, and mismanagement until a new leadership is installed.
According to Dr Ghassan Khatib, the Palestinian minister of labour and planning: "Abu Mazen's first job would be to shift the ball into the other court by inviting the Israelis to resume negotiations" and to ask Israel, Europe and the US "to fulfil their obligations under the road-map".
Dr Khatib continued: "He has carried out the elections and requested legislation to consolidate the security forces into three and put them under the control of the prime minister. He has also pledged to exert 100 per cent effort to prevent violence. He already started a dialogue [ with militants] but this was disrupted by the election campaign.
"He will be able to run the country as president but he will fail to fulfil the high political and economic expectations of the people. His success or failure depends on the other side. Without a change in Israel, the situation will remain hopeless."