THE River Shannon is the dividing line between Longford and Roscommon. There are just two crossing points, which is an indication of a polarisation in geographical terms despite their proximity. In electoral terms, the division is even more pronounced.
Longford votes don't cross the Shannon to any significant extent and neither do their Roscommon equivalents. Bigger parties have to take due cognisance as many voters stick with politicians they know in their own county, regardless of political persuasion.
Fianna Fail, with more than 50 per cent of the vote, easily delivers two seats but not three. Fine Gael - with about 30 per cent - has difficulty securing two seats, but if all three FG candidates engineered effective vote transfers across the constituency the party would have no problems in winning two.
The constituency is largely conservative, featuring a dominant rural/farming population with the largest urban centres being Longford and Roscommon. No one issue dominates but jobs and the peace process - in so far as it can bring significant dividends for the constituency - top voter agendas.
This might suggest an unspectacular campaign but two intriguing internal contests are taking place within Fianna Fail and Fine Gael while the Independent TD, Mr Tom Foxe, is ready to exploit any vote leakage to him.
If that materialises, he is set to win a seat for the third time on the single issue of Roscommon Hospital. That is still a live one, with overcrowding there almost on a daily basis, but it may not be galvanising voters as before.
Those who will make their presence felt, but not in a seat challenging way, include former Independent councillor Ms Mae Sexton, now running for the Progressive Democrats; Ms Marion Gaffney (Lab) and Mr Brian Sheerin (Ind), who has a strong community based development pedigree.
Mr Albert Reynolds's unauthorised biography may be on sale at a cutprice in his home town but the former Taoiseach is still the Longford Leader. He will top the poll. It will not be with the same return as in 1992 when he raked in more than 10,000 votes, but the battle is for the three remaining seats.
The race for the second FF seat will be in Roscommon between Sean Doherty and Terry Leyden - despite the vote getting ability of Senator Michael Finneran who was added to the ticket after an internal poll raised notions of a third FF seat.
Mr Doherty may not pack the same punch as in the past when he was considered a local saviour in sharp contrast to his more controversial national profile. Within his Roscommon heartland his vote may be unravelling a little He is nonetheless, a master strategist and a charismatic campaigner. His rival, Mr Terry Leyden, fired by a strong convention endorsement, is mounting a professional campaign from the political wilderness after losing his seat in 1992.
Within Fine Gael, Senator Denis Naughten is predicted to poll strongly by succeeding his father, Liam, once Roscommon TD and former Cathaoirleach of the Seanad, who died in a car accident last year - after leaving the funeral of one constituent and while travelling to another.
He may also benefit from the young vote. The question is whether it will bring him above John Connor, the sitting Fine Gael TD - despite a higher concentration of voters in Roscommon, there's not enough there to deliver two seats.
Hopes of a second rest with former TD, Mr Louis Belton, of Longford. It is anticipated that if he can outvote one of his Roscommon team mates, he can win a seat. Securing transfers from Mr Reynolds and Ms Sexton on the basis of the perception that Longford is underrepresented in the Dail may be vital.
The outcome will be close.
