Can the EV doubts driving a decline in sales be overcome?

Reluctance. Indecision. Doubts. Genuine fears. Bad information. All these things, and so many more, are currently driving a dip in electric car sales. Sales of EVs have fallen dramatically in Ireland, and they’re actually down by more than 20 per cent so far this year, compared to 2023. That figure is made all the more troubling both by the fact that, previously, electric car sales had been on a steady, steep ascent and by the fact that we desperately need to start reducing our CO2 emissions, and while motoring isn’t the biggest nor only culprit in that regard, it’s a good starting point.

Nonetheless, now that we’ve reached the end of the early adopter period of electric car buying – when those keen on the technology and well disposed to making the changes to their travelling habits to accommodate the current limitations of EVs were driving sales up – the rest of the market, Nixon’s silent majority transposed to the climate crisis era you might say, are holding way, way back.

How, then, to change this? It’s all but impossible to educate the country as a whole in one lump, but BMW Ireland decided that it would at least start somewhere, and gathered an expert group together, hosted by Pat Kenny, to discuss the EV future, and the general cloud of ill-informed comment that so often surrounds the electric car discussion.

[ Do electric cars hold their value? ]

One of the most commonly-quoted fears when it comes to electric cars is that the battery – the single most important component of an EV and by far the most expensive part of the car – will fail, relatively early on in the car’s life, and need expensive replacement, possibly running into a five-figure sum. That fear has been stoked by ill-advised newspaper headlines, often originating from UK publications that have turned their faces firmly against electric cars, which cry alarms about €20,000 battery replacements.

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This is not to say that such cases don’t exist – they do – but they are rare, and actually BMW is in a better position than many car makers to confirm that.

“We were very early to the market with the original i3″ said Graham Biggs, who’s responsible for corporate and product communications for BMW in the UK and Ireland.

“It was really just us and the Nissan Leaf at that stage. So we’re actually in [an] almost unique position to take a view on battery life. We’ve got quite a lot of i3s that are still running around that are ten years old and indeed are being sold on second and third-hand at reasonably high prices. Looking at the usability of those batteries, I think when we first launched those cars, we did think six, maybe eight years would go by and you might need a new one. It’s not the case. We’ve got lots of ten-year-old cars that we’ve looked at and assessed and they still got plenty of battery life, very usable battery life left, between sort of 75 and 85 per cent of their original capacity.”

That is indeed impressive performance, and well ahead of most manufacturer warranties which cover batteries, in general, against drops to around 70 per cent of their original capacity in eight years.

Biggs reckons that much of the problem when it comes to misconceptions of batteries is because we’re used to mobile phone batteries. “We’re all used to looking at our iPhones and thinking, crikey my battery has dropped to 80 per cent of its original capacity in two years. So we think EV batteries are going to be the same, but it’s not the case.

“While some of the chemistry is basically the same, the technology involved is very different, and so too is the charging. We also have a modular battery design, so if something goes wrong you don’t necessarily need to replace the whole battery, you just need to swap out a module, which is much less expensive. issues. So when I spoke to our warranty guys in the UK, I asked how many whole battery packs had to be replaced? They said none. None. None so far. So we’re actually seeing tremendous reliability, and where we have had some problems they’ve been small and the battery’s individual cells have been replaced.”

Infrastructure also remains a stumbling block, even though almost all the evidence of EV use so far points to the fact that 90 per cent of all charging is done at home. While that might be rather cold comfort to those who live in terraced houses or apartments, it does mean that – in reality – the public charging network is for most people most of the time going to be more of a placebo than a real cure. However, it is at least acknowledged that even placebos can be important.

Brian Cooke, director general of the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI), who spoke at the event, said of the charging infrastructure: “We are in a fortunate position, in that the residential housing stock in Ireland lends itself to home charging, but yes we need to do much more on the infrastructure of charging. I drive an EV myself, half the people in this room drive EVs or have driven them, and we’ve all had at least one bad experience with the charging network. And we’re the ones who are prepared for it, who have made the decision to go EV. The next cohort of buyers will need more convincing.

While worries have been expressed about EV residual values, Brian Merrigan from BMW’s finance arm said that the best solution for buyers is to buy on a PCP finance plan with a guaranteed residual value, which can protect the consumer from any fluctuations in the market value (albeit at the expense of having equity left over to act as the deposit for the next car if the second-hand value were to truly crash).

“We’re pricing our second-hand EV values at more or less the same as for our internal combustion models, around 47 to 48 per cent of the original price after three years. The experience within our business is very, very positive in terms of the customer maintaining negative equity and maintaining positive equity. I will stress that it isn’t a mature market just yet, but we’re setting residual values today on various new models that are coming out for two years in the future and we are not decreasing our view of their values.”

However, a great deal of all of this is being asked for the consumer to take on trust. We are asked to take on trust that electric cars will deliver the range and performance with which they are advertised. We are asked to take on trust that commitments to improved charging infrastructure will be carried through (in spite of previous evidence that shows otherwise). We are asked to take at face-value assertions about battery longevity and reliability, and residual values. In other words, we are being asked to put a huge amount of trust into both car dealer and politicians, groups which generally don’t have the highest trust ratings going around. How can we, the people, be asked to trust that much?

“We’re certainly in a transitory time” responded Biggs. “And that always feels a bit uncomfortable. And certainly there have been factors recently which may have shaken people’s confidence. But that’s why we’re here today, to kind of hold people’s hands a bit as we go through this process.

How we respond to climate change, and how we handle the limited resources available will decide the future of society

—  Oliver Zipse - chairman of the board of management for BMW Group

“It’s a different sort of ownership, but there are real benefits to be had, in terms of costs and environmental advantages. I think the important point to remember is that electric cars are coming. It’s not as if they’re suddenly going to stop. Legislation is going to make sure that’s the case. So how can we all in this room help people through that? I think that’s a question we all need to ask ourselves and we’re certainly doing what we can, trying to help people through that transition process.”

Perhaps the most important point was made by Helen Westby, managing director of BMW Ireland, who said: “I think it’s critical that we actually move forward with electric and Oliver Zipse, chairman of the board of management for BMW Group expressed what I thought really was a sobering thought – he said: ‘How we respond to climate change, and how we handle the limited resources available will decide the future of society.’ So I think we all know the reason why we need to change to electric and for me today’s about redressing that balance and making sure that we look at the truth around what’s happening with electric vehicles from both sides.

“We’re not here to argue about any of the claims that anybody’s made. You just want to make sure we address that balance. I would also say that currently, and I did underline currently 100 times in my notes, electric vehicles may not be for everyone. But moving forward, as we extend the range of our vehicles and the infrastructure we have here in Ireland improves, I think it will be the power train of choice.”

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