The year that lies ahead is freighted with uncertainty. In Ireland, doubt remains about whether the system can deliver outcomes at a pace commensurate with the scale of the problems it faces.
The Government has set out a series of essential priorities, most notably in housing delivery, infrastructure, health reform and public finances. A key test will be how speedily progress is made in the opening months of the year, and whether there is evidence by its close of tangible impact.
Ireland’s assumption of the presidency of the European Union in midyear brings both opportunity and risk. While the role offers diplomatic visibility and influence, there is a danger that attention will once again be diverted from domestic imperatives. That would represent a political failure, particularly given the repeated assurances that lessons have been learned from the past. One justification offered for the inability of previous administrations to tackle the housing crisis was the primacy of external shocks, from Brexit to the pandemic. The urgent cannot again be permitted to displace the important.
This will be a defining year for the leaders of the two main Government parties. By taking on the role of Minister for Finance, Simon Harris has placed himself at the centre of economic and political decision-making. The position demands a level of seriousness, discipline and candour that cannot be evaded. It will also require a careful political calibration, maintaining cohesion within Government while managing the expectations of a sceptical electorate.
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For Micheál Martin, the year carries particular symbolic weight. This month he marks 15 years as leader of Fianna Fáil; in May, the party celebrates its centenary. Both milestones will prompt reflection. The party’s ability to define a coherent identity in a fragmented political landscape remains an open question.
Two byelections, likely to be held in late spring, will provide an indication of the public mood. History suggests governing parties rarely prosper in such contests. But the outcomes in Galway West and Dublin Central will nonetheless offer a revealing snapshot of opposition politics, spanning anti-immigration forces on the right to a disparate choice of parties on the left. For Sinn Féin, the elections will be especially significant as it seeks to reassert itself as a credible leader of an alternative government.
Internationally, 2026 marks the 250th anniversary of the United States’ Declaration of Independence. Such anniversaries sometimes encourage self-examination; this one is more likely to be overshadowed by the Trump administration’s aggressive pursuit of a reactionary agenda that has already deepened internal division and strained alliances. While there are signs of fragmentation within Trump’s political base as the US approaches midterm elections in November, his disruptive instincts and the global repercussions of his conduct – starkly illustrated by the outrageous attack on Venezuela this weekend – seem set once more to dominate the international environment.
What this portends for conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine remains unclear. The White House-brokered plan for Gaza may have reduced the intensity of civilian slaughter but violence persists, as does the profound suffering of millions living amid devastation and deprivation. The broader regional consequences of the conflict are still unfolding, with long-term implications that defy easy prediction.
Parallel negotiations aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine are also continuing as the year begins. After periods in which Washington appeared willing to force Kyiv towards sweeping concessions, there are some indications of a more balanced approach, though the ultimate shape of any settlement remains deeply contested.
These conflicts do not stand alone. Violence in Sudan has produced comparable levels of death and displacement, yet has attracted far less sustained attention.
To the surprise of many, the alarming situation unfolding in Venezuela notwithstanding, this geopolitical turbulence has not yet triggered a global economic crisis. Fears of a full-blown trade war between the world’s two superpowers have receded for the moment as China and the US appear to have reached a modus vivendi. However, growth remains anaemic in Europe and narrowly based in the US. Meanwhile, momentum on climate action has visibly stalled, particularly in Washington but increasingly elsewhere too. That trajectory shows no sign of changing in 2026 and bodes ill for the planet’s future.
As the new year dawns, there is no shortage of reasons for concern. Yet Ireland, despite its problems, is an outlier in terms of prosperity, stability and social cohesion. All the more reason to ensure these advantages are not squandered in this current moment of international insecurity.
Ruadhán Mac Cormaic
Editor
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