Subscriber OnlyMedia

Message from the Editor: Elections offer some tentative conclusions

The centre ground appears to hold on a remarkable day for Irish politics

Counting staff at Cork City Hall sort ballots during the local elections. Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA Wire

Ruadhán Mac Cormaic's face
Ruadhán Mac Cormaic
Sun Jun 9 2024 - 09:56

As I write, 32 hours after polling stations closed in Ireland’s local and European elections, just 184 out of 949 city and county council seats have been filled. Counting of votes in the European Parliament election has not yet begun. Ireland’s electoral system has many virtues; speed it not one of them. So there is a lot we don’t know. But thanks to the tallies, early counts and the far from inscrutable body language of the Irish politician, we can draw some tentative conclusions.

The trends revealed in the Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll series, in particular the slide in support for Sinn Féin, have been confirmed at the ballot box. All three of the Government parties – Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens – look set to see their vote share decline, but if anything, more than four years into the Coalition’s term, it is the sturdiness of their combined vote that stands out. Independents and micro-parties had a good day, but the ideological range captured in that category makes it almost meaningless as an analytical frame.

Local elections cannot predict general election results – remember that 2019 was a poor guide to 2020 – but the shifting electoral landscape will clearly alter the dynamic of Irish politics in the run-in to a Dáil election. It may well also influence the timing of that election. With several by-elections now likely before the end of the year, and Sinn Féin’s momentum stalled for now, expect Taoiseach Simon Harris to face internal party pressure to cut and run after the budget this autumn.

On irishtimes.com this weekend, you’ll find instant updates from every ongoing count, as well as in-depth analysis of the results and their implications. For up-to-the-minute news and commentary, follow our live story with Conor Pope and Harry McGee.

READ MORE

Late last night, Pat Leahy filed a sharply observed piece on what he calls “a remarkable day in Irish politics”. Sinn Féin will be disappointed, he writes, but the centre ground, and the brand of centre-left politics represented by Labour, the Greens and the Social Democrats, put in a better-than-expected performance. These swings imply an electorate that is open to persuasion. “Lots of voters, untethered to ancestral political loyalties, swing around between parties with a promiscuity that would make their forefathers blush,” he writes.

Pat and Jennifer Bray joined Hugh Linehan on Saturday evening for the latest instalment of our Inside Politics Daily podcast; it’s well worth a listen. The next pod will land in your feed this afternoon.

And while you’re waiting for more results, read Liz Carolan’s analysis of our first “splinternet” election and enjoy this account of the highs and lows of the campaign by Miriam Lord.

Beyond Irish politics, there’s plenty of reading on the site this weekend. In Opinion, Mark O’Connell wonders whether we would have been spared a lot of confusion if the postwar computer scientists who conceived of AI had given it a different name, like “applied statistics”. Because, for all its value, Mark writes, AI isn’t really all that intelligent. Elsewhere in the same section, Cliff Taylor is not impressed by Simon Harris’s call on the banks to cut mortgage interest rates, while Razan Ibraheem urges us not to avert our gaze from the horror in Gaza.

In Sport, Paul Howard has written a remarkable piece on the life and death of the Olympic medal-winning boxer Darren Sutherland.

When thunder sounds, the children flinch … It’s one of several haunting moments witnessed by reporter Patrick Freyne and videographer Chris Maddaloni, who travelled to Lebanon to see up close the human impact of the artillery war between Hizbullah and Israel that has been in progress since October.

Closer to home, Sheila Wayman and Jen Hogan have documented the reality of divorce in a housing crisis. Experts in the area say that money and property can often dominate the process, to the exclusion of other considerations such as the emotional effects on children – and on the divorcing parties themselves.

In Saturday’s magazine cover story, Oliver Callan is frank about working in an RTÉ where the ghost of Ryan Tubridy looms large. Callan has also travelled a long road personally, from being bullied as a teenager in Monaghan, to becoming chief satirist of the Irish political scene, to his current radio star status.

Audiobooks – sometimes read by an actor of the calibre of Meryl Streep or Jessie Buckley, sometimes by the author themselves – can bring a book to life in a new way. If your summer holidays involve a road trip, this Ticket list of the best new audiobook titles might interest you.

One person who undertook an especially impressive road trip recently was Sophie Power. First she drove from Cork to Donegal … then she ran back. Sophie experienced injury, hallucinations and, finally, uncontrollable tears when she completed her Guinness-world-record-breaking run from Malin Head in Inishowen to Mizen Head in west Cork. The 563km journey took three days, 12 hours and eight minutes – three hours less than the previous record holder. Sophie’s story was the subject of an article and podcast this week.

Finally, the athletics. Watching the mixed relay team win a gold medal for Ireland at the European Championships in Rome on Friday night was one of the highlights of the weekend. Our reporter Ian O’Riordan was at the Stadio Olimpico to witness the extraordinary feat by Chris O’Donnell, Rhasidat Adeleke, Thomas Barr and Sharlene Mawdsley. And he’ll be there for some big races today, including tonight’s 1500m final featuring Ciara Mageean and Sarah Healy.

Ruadhán Mac Cormaic

Editor

We value your views. Please feel free to send comments, feedback or suggestions for topics you would like to see covered to feedback@irishtimes.com.