Wait, what, wasn't he just elected?
Not quite – but in political terms, Kelly isn't in the job very long, taking up the reins of the Labour Party in April 2020. Shock and bewilderment at the move spread around Leinster House, and indeed the wider Labour Party, as news of the impending departure was leaked on Wednesday. It culminated in a emotional press conference from Kelly on the Leinster House plinth, flanked by the 10 other members of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP – the party's TDs and Senators), who had just over 24 hours earlier delivered the unanimous verdict, via three emissaries, that Kelly had to go.
Any more details?
The storm clouds, apparently, had been gathering for some time. But things started to move with more purpose on the previous Wednesday, when some Labour TDs and Senators gathered (sans AK47, as he is known) to discuss their multiple grievances. The following day, Kelly was confronted at a full meeting of the PLP. He defended himself, apparently becoming emotional at one point, but his parliamentary colleagues were unconvinced. In the days that followed, the drumbeat for change grew louder, and the entire PLP (again, excepting the leader) met last Sunday, to co-ordinate the final moves. They decided that three members of the PLP – TDs Seán Sherlock and Duncan Smith, and Senator Mark Wall – would approach Kelly the following week, and tell him he had to go, or he would face a unanimous motion of no confidence. The three were chosen for the fact that they were close with the leader, to emphasise that the party was of one mind on this. Apparently, Kelly accepted his fate fairly quickly.
Kelly's allies would rightly point to the win in the Dublin Bay South byelection as a high water mark for his leadership
Why is all this happening?
The party pointed to two factors in the aftermath of Kelly's defenestration. Firstly, the party's polling performance – which has been pretty moribund since the general election, hovering between three and five per cent. It's clear there had been no polling bounce for the party following Kelly's elevation. Those sent out to defend the move also pointed to Kelly's association with the 2011-2016 government and its austerity policy programme. The Tipperary TD was both a junior and cabinet minister in that coalition. Kelly himself had been associated with Irish Water, and the early days of the housing crisis, during his time in cabinet. Other issues have been pointed to, privately, by party figures. They say there was recent fallout over the manner in which a backroom appointment was handled, with general secretary Billie Sparks and Louth TD Ged Nash both critical of aspects of this process internally. This acted as a trigger, as did concerns over "culture" and Kelly's style, which can be brash and abrasive.
And does that make sense?
It does to a point: it clearly wasn't going well, and there is a case for the prosecution, which Labour have made, albeit not very convincingly. Kelly's allies would rightly point to the win in the Dublin Bay South byelection as a high water mark for his leadership, and there is a persuasive argument that Kelly was not given a fair crack of the whip. He never led the party in any full election – local, general or European – which is usually the litmus test for leadership. In addition he was fighting with one hand tied behind his back, unable to campaign and press his particular brand of personal politics home with the electorate. Killing off the leader of a small party, where polling numbers don't tell the full story, midway through a general election cycle runs contrary to conventional political wisdom.
So is this the end of the affair?
Probably not. There is a lingering feeling that Kelly's departure has not been fully explained, and not just among the chattering classes. Labour councillors and grassroots operatives were stunned, and in the aftermath of the resignation remained unconvinced that the charge sheet merited Kelly's exit. He was elected two years ago, the first contest for the Labour leadership in six years, and significant numbers in the membership seem to think the termination by the PLP demands a more complete explanation. As Labour attempts to draw a line under this process, and strike out under a new leader, the ghost of their last one may continue to haunt the party.
