Wynne Godley:WYNNE GODLEY, emeritus professor of applied economics at the University of Cambridge and one of the most brilliant and original analysts of his generation, has died at the age of 83.
He was the younger son of Hugh Godley, second Lord Kilbracken, whose estate Killegar on the borders of Cavan and Leitrim is still owned by the family. His grandfather, the first baron, had been private secretary to William Gladstone before becoming under secretary of state for India.
Godley’s parents separated acrimoniously when he was born and he had a difficult and lonely childhood except when his holidays were spent at Killegar. He described it as “a place of unsurpassable loveliness overlooking two lakes with woods running down to them”.
After unhappy experiences at two preparatory schools, he went to Rugby where his musical talents were encouraged. William Glock, the British music critic and musical administrator, who was his mother’s lover, also took an interest in his musical education and he learnt to play the oboe.
From school, he went to New College, Oxford, where he was tutored by Isaiah Berlin and gained a first in modern greats.
The next three years he spent in Paris, studying at the Conservatoire de Musique. On his return to Britain, he became the principal oboe of the BBC Welsh Symphony orchestra. However, “plagued by the fear that he would let everyone down” caused him to suffer so badly from nerves during performances that he gave up the career of a professional musician and joined the Metal Box Company as an economist.
From the Metal Box Company, he moved to the treasury as a forecaster in the economics section. He was involved in the calculations that set the size of the devaluation of sterling in 1967.
He was persuaded to become the director of the department of applied economics at Cambridge. As a fellow of King’s College, he devised a new form of accounting and financial planning for the college finances.
A keen gambler, he introduced roulette as an entertainment after certain college feasts. His brother, the third Lord Kilbracken, had had an extraordinary ability to dream of the winners of horse races, though this failed when he tried make money from this gift.
As an analyst, Godley was controversial and usually pessimistic (he was known as the Cassandra of the Fens).
His proposal that Britain should stay out of the Common Market was unpopular with other economists.
He attacked the monetarist doctrines of the Thatcherite government which he once dismissed as “a gigantic con”.
In 1982, his research grant was cut, about which he was very bitter, believing it was vindictiveness on the part of the government. He continued to publish many articles and letters, analysing the future prospects and making recommendations for government action.
Despite his maverick status, the accuracy of his forecasts brought him back into favour.
From 1992 to 1995, he was a member of the treasury’s panel of independent forecasters, the “six wise men”. As a distinguished scholar at the Levy Institute in New York state, he warned in 1998 that the growing imbalance in the global economy fuelled by growing private sector debt in the US was unsustainable.
Five years ago, he predicted that discretionary fiscal policy would have to return. Among his many publications, his two most significant books are Macroeconomics, written with Francis Cripps, and Monetary Economics, with Marc Lavoie, published in 2007.
In 1955, he married Kitty, the former wife of Lucien Freud and daughter of the sculptor Jacob Epstein, who used Godley’s head as the model for that of St Michael crushing the devil in Coventry Cathedral. He is survived by his wife and daughter.
Prof Wynne Alexander Hugh Godley: born September 2nd, 1926; died May 13th, 2010.