Musical chairs in the paddock

It's the time of year when almost every driver in the Formula 1 firmament is the subject of rumour.

It's the time of year when almost every driver in the Formula 1 firmament is the subject of rumour.

It's silly season in Formula One and the drivers' merry-go-round is whirling at full speed. In this game of musical chairs any driver can be linked to any team and fully expect negotiations to be opened, though often just as plain courtesy.

When the sport reconvenes in Istanbul this weekend, the buzz will centre around the paddock's two Brazilian drivers, Rubens Barrichello and Felipe Massa. Three weeks ago in Hungary, Barrichello decided that five seasons tagging behind Michael Schumacher was enough and it was time to depart Ferrari for pastures new.

Exactly which new pastures isn't clear yet. It's sure to be BAR but the team's PR department hasn't caught up with Ferrari's yet - it revealed that its young protégé, Massa, currently plying his trade at Sauber, will race alongside Schumacher next season. Cue the firing up of the rumour mill and drivers being moved about like so many chesspieces.

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But who's really going where? A clear picture has yet to emerge at the top teams but there are signs on the garage walls. Barrichello's likely arrival at BAR - it only needs rubber-stamping by the Honda-powered team - means that the Brackley-based outfit will have a surfeit of drivers - Jenson Button, Takuma Sato, tester Anthony Davidson and, waiting in the wings, Belfast boy Adam Carroll. But the line-up depends on Button's movements, though Davidson has been linked to Jordan/Midland.

Button is desperate to stay at BAR, despite having an agreement, signed last year, to race at Williams. But, with BMW deserting the Williams fold to concentrate on building its own team having bought Sauber, Frank Williams' squad is not the most attractive for a championship contender as Button claims to be.

BAR has scored so few points this year that the clause which will allow Williams to poach him has been activated. How to get out of it? That's the big question for Button and one likely to go to arbitration.

Williams has Mark Webber and Nick Heidfeld on its books, though it has already been suggested that Heidfeld has signed a pre-agreement with BAR for 2006, even though Williams has an option on his services. The German has proved himself at Williams, making the previously hyped Webber look ordinary - he's now a hot property, with BMW also keen on him for its new camp at Sauber.

A Button/Heidfeld swap would leave Takuma Sato looking decidedly out in the cold. The Japanese has been an erratic force at BAR - while often quicker in races than Button, he seems to have assimilated almost no racecraft in his years in F1. He is too loose a cannon for BAR and a Barrichello/ Heidfeld pairing - safe pairs of hands if ever there were such things - is where the team wants to head.

So where does that leave BMW/Sauber? Between a rock and hard place initially. It has the faded Jacques Villeneuve on a two-year Sauber deal, which, if the Canadian is to be believed, is unbreakable. If it has to persist with Villeneuve, who takes the remaining berth?

At best Munich and Hinwil can hope for BAR and Williams coming to an accommodation, leaving Heidfeld free to join the new BMW outfit as sensible lead driver.

Where would that leave Williams? Webber has said he wants to see out the final year of his two-year deal with the team, despite rumours of occasional frostiness between the Australian and the powers that be. But a partner looks more elusive. Giancarlo Fisichella has been mentioned, as relations between he and Renault boss Flavio Briatore have apparently fractured again. That move would free Briatore to bring in one his other protégés, GP series leader Heikki Kovalainen, though that looks a rumour too far.

What is sure is that certain drivers are going nowhere. Toyota is secure with Jarno Trulli and Ralf Schumacher. Fernando Alonso will surely be at Renault for another season, despite rumours linking him with Ferrari. That won't happen until Michael Schumacher retires and there's no sign of that for some time.

McLaren will hang on to Kimi Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya, despite this year's troubles. This remains, potentially, the best driver pairing on the grid.

So, the key to the final round of musical chairs rests with Button. Barrichello may have forced the issue to some degree, but the outcome of Buttongate will kick off the final dash for the remaining top seats on the grid.

Our bet? Button to stay at BAR with Barrichello. Heidfeld to partner Villeneuve at Sauber and Williams to be forced to hunt for a partner for Webber. GP2 star Nico Rosberg anyone?