The insurance industry has sounded a warning to drivers not to take needless risks in cars which are not fully autonomous. The warning comes on foot of the release of systems by Tesla and Mercedes, and shortly by Volvo, which are partly autonomous but which still require full attention and concentration by the driver.
Tesla’s system in particular came in for criticism when owners posted videos on social media of themselves climbing into the back seat while the car drove itself, not realising that the system, instead of bringing the car to a halt if it detects a problem, simply hands back control to the driver.
Speaking at an insurance industry seminar, James Dalton, director of general insurance policy for the Association Of British Insurers (an organisation whose members include Aviva, Axa, Allianz, AIG and some whose names don’t begin with A) told attendees that “in my personal view, the use of the term driverless cars is not only misleading but potentially dangerous. At least until the very long term, a car is going to require a trained, competent and sober driver to oversee its operation even if it is operating autonomously.
“Ensuring consumers understand the limits of vehicle autonomy will be critically important. We know all too well from conventional vehicles that drivers misunderstand what their cars can and cannot do. We know that there are difficulties with programming cars to deal with real-world driving conditions – fallible human beings drive but without necessarily following the rules of the road. And we know that in-vehicle computer systems are only as good as the inputs they receive.
“Let’s also not forget that a large number of consumers think that a driver should always be in control of a car. I may be old-fashioned but I’d put myself into that category. When I fly home to New Zealand I expect there to be pilots in the cockpit of the plane who are trained to fly it. I know that the auto-pilot will do the majority of the flying but I expect the pilots to take over control of the plane should something go wrong. And I think most consumers take a similar view to vehicles.”
Out of date
The speech has led to some car makers, notably Volvo, accusing insurers of being out of date. Volvo president and chief executive Hakan Samuelsson has issued a stark warning to the insurance industry that “the medium to long-term impact on the insurance industry is likely to be significant. But let’s not forget the real reason for this: fewer accidents, fewer injuries, fewer fatalities. Autonomous drive technology is the single most important advance in automotive safety to be seen in recent years.”
Indeed, according to Volvo’s figures, verified by the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and global re-insurers Swiss Re, insurance companies could see as much as $20 billion wiped off their value as crashes, thanks to the advance of automated safety systems, are expected to drop by as much as 80 per cent by 2035.
Peter Shaw, chief executive at Thatcham Research, which assesses vehicles for their insurance costs and safety ratings, said that “vehicle manufacturers are predicting that highly autonomous vehicles, capable of allowing the driver to drop ‘out of the loop’ for certain sections of their journey, will be available from around 2021. Without doubt, crash frequency will also dramatically reduce. We’ve already seen this with the adoption of Autonomous Emergency Braking on many new cars. Research in the US by NHTSA predicts that by 2035, as a result of autonomous and connected cars, crashes will be reduced by 80 per cent.
“Additionally, if a crash unfortunately can’t be avoided, then the impact speed will also drop as a result of the system’s performance – reducing the severity of the crash.”
Volvo’s Samuelsson chimed in again to remind that his company has an ambitious safety target set to be fulfilled in just four years’ time. “The advent of autonomous driving represents a revolution for automotive safety. Volvo has a vision that no one will be killed or seriously injured in a new Volvo by 2020. Autonomous drive technology is a key tool in helping us achieve this aim.”
However, Mr Dalton appears unmoved by such claims. “None of what I’ve just said should be interpreted as the insurance industry not supporting the development and roll-out of autonomous vehicle technology. Far from it,” he said. “But there are some big questions for the future about consumer demand for autonomous vehicles. And there are big questions of the future about the political, regulatory and liability environments in which these vehicles will operate. But predictions about the demise of the insurance industry in the context of autonomous vehicles are wide of the mark.”
Profiteering
With the insurance industry in Ireland coming under significant fire from regulators and industry watchers for apparently profiteering from vastly inflated premium prices, the next moves on insuring autonomous cars will be closely watched to ensure consumers are getting a fair deal.
Mind you, both sides could be getting ahead of themselves a little. BMW's head of sales and marketing, Ian Roberston, has told Autocar magazine that he thinks truly autonomous cars are still many, many years away. "We determine it in layman's terms as feet off, hands off, eyes off, brain off. Feet off is done – we have automatic cruise control – and I can take my hands off the wheel for up to 15 seconds with steering assist," he said. "That 15 seconds will become one minute, five minutes and so on, but there's an extended period before, in all circumstances, that becomes hands off and feet off for a meaningful time. Eyes off and brain off is still many, many years away."
