From seaside to hillside - where will it be safe?

Where in Ireland will the wise homebuyer of the future look for a dream property in an environment affected by climate change…

Where in Ireland will the wise homebuyer of the future look for a dream property in an environment affected by climate change? The greenhouse effect of global warming is expected to have a profoundly negative impact on both countryside and town, so consideration will have to be given to how the investment will fare in 20 to 50 years.

Shoreline property is very valuable today but exposed coasts are probably not the place to be. The Atlantic will generate much more powerful storms in the future, says Dr Peter Coxon, of the Geography department at Trinity College.

Rising air and sea temperatures will greatly increase weather turbulence, he said. Studies suggested that sea levels will rise to an uncertain degree. While rising seas will not in themselves pose a significant problem, he said, they will have an impact when the storm surge builds in front of an incoming weather system. Coastal erosion, particularly in Wexford and along the eastern seaboard, has been a feature of life for 10,000 years, he said, but altering climate patterns will accelerate this process.

One must also choose carefully when moving inland. Dr John Sweeney, of the Department of Geography at NUI Maynooth, has taken a detailed look at how Ireland's weather might be affected by global warming.

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Increased winter rains and more frequent vigorous storms will lead to flooding along rivers and in low-lying areas. Reduced summertime rainfall will offer little comfort, however, as desiccated soils may cause rapid runoff during less frequent but very heavy summer rains, prompting flash flooding.

Heading for the hills in order to avoid lowlands does not automatically provide an answer either. Dr Sweeney anticipates much regional variability in weather patterns. The east coast and east midlands will be drier than the west during our hotter, longer summers so the cost and availability of good drinking water could become a regional issue. The lowvolume water courses that provide drinking water for the northwest today might also come under sustained pressure. Over time it may become apparent where the areas least affected by climate change are, but this will concentrate development in these locations. The water issue, Dr Sweeney believes, could become a limiting factor to development.

The old mantra of the estate agent, `location, location, location' will still hold true.