Restaurateurs are facing an uphill battle, but guerrilla tactics could prove successful, writes Tom Doorley
THERE'S A THEORY that you get better wine from vines that have to struggle in stony, poor soil. In some ways, the same applies to restaurants.
In times of boom, the growth in restaurants is as lush as the foliage of an over-comfortable grapevine. As consumers' grip on reality is loosened, prices rise, charlatans enter the business, food becomes more of a status symbol than a source of physical pleasure, and a great deal of utter rubbish is dished up at many multiples of the cost of the raw materials.
If I had a euro - no, even 50 cent - for the number of people who have said that We Should Have Seen it All Coming and We Knew it Couldn't Last Forever, I could buy a nearly new Porsche (have you seen the prices?).
But there were certainly some anomalies that should have raised the eyebrows. For example, the cost of employing restaurant staff being higher in Dublin than in London. This is madness.
While it was a little difficult to believe those restaurateurs who protested that profits, even in boom times, were so small that they were, in effect, just feeding us for the love of it all, there's no doubt that by now many of them are in genuine trouble.
A major restaurant supplier with whom I spoke last week told me that 30 per cent of direct debits had bounced in November. At this rate, if the banks don't loosen up, there will be carnage in the restaurant trade in January and February. If the carnage were confined to those restaurants that sold overpriced detritus when times were good, not many tears would be shed. But I can see some very decent and honest establishments going the way of all flesh.
If things turn out as badly as many predict, I suspect there will be a return to the notion of Small is Beautiful. It seems simply wrong that a restaurant like The Winding Stair, which is constantly packed, should be taken down by the troubles of the Thomas Read Group. Its many fans are praying that it will become independent.
The Winding Stair, of course, is well tuned to the times. It was one of the first places with a really talented kitchen to take Irish food - as in Irish dishes - seriously. It deliberately combined chunky, comforting food with a sophisticated wine list. This kind of approach is going to continue to sell, but perhaps with cheaper cuts of meat and fewer single estate Tuscan reds.
At the other end of the market, those restaurants where the rich liked to consume conspicuously ("an udder bottle of Cristal, garcon!") will be squeezed not by a lack of wealth but by a reluctance on the part of the privileged to be seen spending.
Bling is very last year. The BMW 320d is in, the Maserati Quattroporte is out.
The lunch trade will take a heavy knock in the New Year. It always does in January and February, but this year will be worse. There's considerable cost involved in staying open for lunch and dinner; and many people who used to enjoy table service will now be happy to queue in places such as the Silk Road Cafe. Expect to see many establishments offering lunch only on Fridays and Saturdays. And perhaps more really good cafes.
Many restaurateurs are talking about feeding young professionals with decent food at little more than they would have to pay to eat at home. This would be based on a kind of early evening menu, with a glass of wine included. It sounds like a great idea, but one wonders about the economics.
In terms of menus, I can see a surge in demand for skirt and shin beef (expect plenty of bavettes and daubes), for the stuff that goes into pates and terrines, for good bread and for anything that takes ages to cook but tastes great after a few hours. The relative cheapness of vegetables, even organic ones, will make them look sexier than usual.
The future is looking bleak for big-brand wines in restaurants. We don't want to be reminded, every time we got to the supermarket, how much we are paying for drinking such wines while eating out. The already established swing back towards Europe looks set to continue and the good news is that there's plenty of good, inexpensive wine out there, especially from Spain and southern France. It looks like 2009 is going to be more about Corbières than Corton.
Back in the 1980s, when London was booming and Ireland was about to sink into the North Atlantic under the weight of collective desperation, nouvelle cuisine, with its postage-stamp portions and essence of cheffiness was at its height. Over here, there were scattered outbreaks, but I don't think anyone was much impressed. What may have gone down a treat in Fulham was scorned in Foxrock.
In hard times, we need to be soothed and comforted; at heart, we're all just big kids who need a hug and a hot dinner. And few things are more comforting than good food.
I may be wrong, but I reckon sales of porridge, slippers and hot-water bottles will shadow the increase in stew and casserole production, glasses of wine for €4.50 as against €6.50, the sub-€2 espresso, noodles, menus without supplements, single slices of cheese as against selections of cheese and anything involving chocolate.
And there are other good aspects. It's going to be an auspicious time for young, talented, hard-working cooks and managers to set up shoestring operations, guerrilla restaurants in a sense, in which they could make a considerable name for themselves.
I'm not sure I'd be an investor, though. If I had any money, I think I'd put it in chocolate.
tdoorley@irishtimes.com