Over the past decade, many Irish people have relied on the 457 visa programme as a route into Australia; a pathway to permanent residency and a long future here. The announcement by prime minister Malcolm Turnbull on Tuesday that the visa programme is to be abolished in order to "put Australians first" has resulted in shock and surprise. But the changes were not unheralded.

The 457 visa scheme, which allows employer-sponsored foreign workers and their dependents to live in Australia for up to four years, has been subject to a lot of debate in recent years. Former prime minister Julia Gillard made significant changes to the scheme in 2013, to address what was seen as exploitation by some employers.

Australia, like other major powers in the western world, has seen a rise in right-wing populism, which has brought with it strong anti-immigrant rhetoric from a certain cohort. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party has been vociferous in its objections to immigration and the 457 visa programme in particular, and what it perceives as the detrimental effect it is having on local workers.

Within the current governing Liberal-National Coalition, there has been lot of talk by George Christiansen and others about the need to overhaul the system. In a minority parliament with a slim majority, there was immense pressure on government to do something. But no one expected a wholesale rejection of the 457 visa, which is what Turnbull announced today.

By March 2018, the 457 visa will have been replaced by a two or four-year Temporary Skills Shortage visa. The number of eligible occupations will be reduced from 651 to 435, with caveats on a further 59, and the threshold to qualify will be raised.

Concern

These changes to the 457 visa system will have a major impact on future skilled migration of Irish people to Australia. The announcement has resulted in a lot of anxiety and concern in the Irish community here, especially among those who are currently on 457 visas, or are awaiting a visa application to be granted.

Those who are on 457 visas at the moment will be unaffected. Their status will not change. They will have the same rights and entitlements tomorrow as they did yesterday. Those who have applied for a 457 visa but have not yet received it will be affected if the skill or occupation they are relying on has been removed from the list. They will have to reassess their options.

But given type of qualifications and skills and background that Irish people take to Australia, I believe the changes will have less of an impact on the Irish community than it will on other immigrant communities here.

There are two types of people who are now coming from Ireland to Australia. Backpackers come for a year or two to travel and work a bit along the way, and return to Ireland after their working holiday visas expire. They will be unaffected by these changes (unless they seek to stay on by applying for a skilled temporary visa).

The other group are those who come here looking for something longer term. Many of these people will still be catered for by other independent permanent residency visas, if they have good qualifications and demonstrable relevant work experience in areas where there are labour shortages.

The changes today will only affect people who don’t have the basic required skills to qualify for independent sponsorship, and need an employer to nominate them, i.e. those who are less qualified, or have less experience or poorer English language skills.

A few years ago, we would have seen much larger numbers of Irish affected by these changes. At the height of the global financial crisis, tens of thousands of Irish workers were coming to Australia every year, many of whom would have needed employer nomination.

But Irish migration to Australia has changed dramatically. The Irish community in Australia in 2017 is very different today than it was four or five years ago. With improvement in Irish economy, we have seen the return of a lot of “recession emigrants” back home to Ireland, and fewer coming out to Australia. The ones who are coming now are more likely to have the necessary requirements for independent sponsorship.

Nationalism

The nationalistic language used around the immigration issue has a very detrimental impact. There is a faction that castigates people on 457s; the visa has been held up by some as the epitome of the biggest evil: reducing local employment opportunities for Australian workers. It is a vastly simplistic argument, of course. An unemployed mine worker in northern Queensland is not going to get a job as an IT consultant in Brisbane just because the foreign guy on a 457 visa can no longer apply. But those views are loudly articulated by those who hold them.

This rhetoric has an impact on people’s perceptions of Australia, and how welcome they feel here as immigrants. It is easy to fall into the trap of feeling that you have done something wrong for being on a visa type that everyone thinks is terrible.

As the prime minister said today, Australia is the most successful multicultural society in the world. People from all walks of life from all corners of the globe are welcome here and can achieve amazing things. The Irish community is very well thought of in Australia, and always has been. If you look at some of the changes that have been mooted today, the more stringent English language requirement, for example, that indicates that the changes are directed at non-English speaking migrants.

The Irish people who will be most unfairly affected are those who have just graduated from university and don’t have the work experience, or others from a trades background who might have years of experience but no formal qualifications. These people would have relied on employer nominations in the past, and they will struggle now.

If Ireland is unfortunate enough to have another economic collapse, and another generation of Irish people are trying to find a home in Australia, then is when we will see the real impact of these changes. Even if they qualify for one of the new TSS visas, they may not be eligible to apply for permanent residency to stay here in the longer term. And that is a real shame.

- In conversation with Ciara Kenny

David Greene is president of the Queensland chapter of the Irish Australian Chamber of Commerce, and an associate with Slater and Gordon Lawyers in Brisbane.