The Irish State is failing to plan adequately for a sudden increase in asylum seeker arrivals, despite being obliged under EU law to present a contingency plan for this scenario by April 2025.
Ireland is one of just six European countries with no plan to deal with a sudden increase in demand for asylum accommodation, according to the EU-funded European Migration Network (EMN) that provides information on migration and asylum.
Research published by the network in October found Ireland was not among the “majority of European countries” – 21 out of 27 – with a formal contingency planning system.
A wide range of stakeholders should be involved in the development and implementation of such plans, including government ministries, regional/local authorities, international organisations, NGOs, security and law-enforcement authorities, and public health services, among others, according to the report.
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Under the Reception Conditions Directive, which the Irish State opted into in July 2024 as part of the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, the Government is legally obliged to draw up a contingency plan.
This includes measures to be taken if a “disproportionate number of applications for international protection, including unaccompanied minors” arrive in the country. This plan is due to be submitted to the European Union Agency for Asylum by April 2025.
Contingency planning “to manage a major expansion of numbers applying for international protection” was first flagged as a “matter of urgency” in the Government’s 2019 Inter-Departmental group report on direct provision.
In September 2020, the Government-appointed advisory group report said a lack of contingency planning for unforeseen surges in applications had “contributed to the reactive nature” of the State’s asylum system.
Contingency planning should be “done in advance so that additional resources can be deployed quickly, to prevent surges leading to the build-up of backlogs”.
The advisory group’s findings were used as the basis of the Government’s 2021 White Paper which committed to ending direct provision during the lifetime of that Government – a commitment it failed to fulfil.
However, no preparation would have been sufficient to deal with the “magnitude” of arrivals which came with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, said Enda O’Neill, head of office for UNHCR Ireland.
“Contingency planning was well flagged as something we needed to do. But we have to acknowledge the arrivals from Ukraine were unpredictable and unprecedented,” he said.
A total of 112,761 Ukrainian have registered in Ireland as beneficiaries of temporary protection since 2022. However, an estimated quarter of these have now left Ireland, according to the Central Statistics Office.
Some 32,619 asylum seekers, including 9,011 children, are currently in State-provided accommodation. Another 3,062 male asylum seekers are homeless.
In Finland the immigration service estimates the housing capacity for new arrivals each autumn for the upcoming year, according to a 2023 EMN report
There’s an average of 29 international protection applicants arriving in Ireland each day, down from an average of 47 per day in early October. However, it’s estimated 18,500 asylum applications will be made by the end of 2024, up from 13,277 last year.
The incoming Government should ringfence capital rather than current spending on the delivery of housing for asylum seekers, one senior Government adviser told The Irish Times.
When it comes to immigration, Government officials “don’t do long-term planning”, the adviser said.
“It’s short-termism but these problems are long term by their nature. This is the price of being a safe and prosperous country. They find it difficult to know which numbers to plan for but numbers have gone up in the past. That’s why we need joined-up thinking,” they said.
The last Government “dumped this all on Roderic O’Gorman” and “didn’t deal with it”, said the adviser. “They can’t do that any more; it’s just the two parties. And with the European pact, they have to deliver on this.”
EMN research highlights the Czech Republic, Poland, Serbia and Latvia as European states with functioning contingency strategies for sudden migratory pressure.
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In Finland the immigration service estimates the housing capacity for new arrivals each autumn for the upcoming year, according to a 2023 EMN report.
After experiencing a sudden increase in asylum applications before 2017, the Finnish government used the “quiet period” that followed to “strategically prepare in case of another increase”.
This included improving collaboration between national, regional and local levels, creating emergency housing plans and developing guidance for opening reception centres.
Many European countries, including Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, Germany and Estonia, have introduced similar forecasting mechanisms to “manage the uncertainty and unpredictability that will always characterise asylum”, said senior EMN policy officer Keire Murphy.
Ireland should learn from the challenges and good practices these European countries have identified when managing and governing migration numbers and patterns, she adds.
Asked about the State’s contingency planning in the case of a sudden influx in asylum seekers arriving in Ireland, a Department of Integration spokeswoman said planning was under way for the introduction of the EU Migration Pact in 2026. This includes a requirement to plan for surge capacity, she said.
Any large-scale event, such as international conflict, pandemics or other cross-Border or significant public health emergencies, are led by the Department of Defence’s Office of Emergency Planning and require a whole-of-government response, she said.
Ireland is currently responding to an “ongoing very significant increase in applications for international protection”, coinciding with the arrival of Ukrainians, which has meant a 400 per cent increase in accommodation capacity for these arrivals, she added.
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