A year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and with facilities for displaced people bursting at the seams, voters remain supportive of the State’s policy of helping refugees and concerned at protests outside facilities for them.
But anxiety about the capacity of the State to deal with the numbers arriving has grown since last year. Irish people seem happy to help refugees while at the same time are worried that too many will arrive.
In one sense, there is a contradiction in believing that the State should observe its international obligations to protect refugees and then saying that the numbers should be limited. But it is hardly illogical. Clearly, there is a level somewhere at which the State’s capacities are exhausted, and even if you believe this should be considerably in excess of the numbers in the system, the sight of Ministers scrambling madly among State agencies to find accommodation clearly has an impact on public perception.
The commitment to assist refugees is widespread and consistent. Last July, when many of these questions were asked in a similar Irish Times-Ipsos poll, 82 per cent of people agreed that it is “important Ireland lives up to its international obligations to protect people who are at risk”; today, the number is 79 per cent. Just 14 per cent of people disagree, up one point since July.
The commitment to assist refugees is complemented by a concern for how they are treated here. Following high-profile protests outside some facilities housing migrants, and a counterprotest last Saturday during which thousands of people marched in support of refugees in Dublin, a strong majority of people say that such protests should not be permitted.
Seven out of 10 voters (70 per cent) say that protests should not be permitted outside direct provision centres, with just 24 per cent disagreeing. Older voters are considerably more concerned about the welfare of refugees than younger people in this regard. Among the oldest cohort of voters, the gap between those who say protests should be allowed (14 per cent) and those who say protests should not be allowed is 69 points, while among younger voters, it is just 20 points (35 per cent to 55 per cent).
How the world sees the war in Ukraine
And yet the sense that the State’s capacity to accommodate refugees is under strain is strengthening. Asked if they agreed with the statement “I am concerned that too many asylum seekers and refugees might come to Ireland”, 68 per cent of respondents said they did, with just over a quarter (27 per cent) disagreeing. This is an increase of 15 points since last July in the net agreement figure, when 60 per cent agreed and 34 per cent disagreed.
The number of those who say there is a limit to the number of asylum seekers and refugees that Ireland can cope with is steady since July on 84 per cent. The number of those who favour a cap on the number of Ukrainians declined slightly to 71 per cent, while there is a smaller majority against sending military assistance to Ukraine (54 per cent against and 32 per cent in favour).
Overall, the majority view suggested by today’s poll is supportive of the Government’s efforts to help refugees but if there are signs that the Government cannot cope with the numbers then that support could quickly turn. The majority are not opposed to accepting refugees but they want it to be sustainable. The extent of anti-immigrant feeling in many European countries could serve as a warning to the Government about the necessity to manage the refugee crisis rather better than it has done so far.
There is a final point worth making. On almost every single question, supporters of Sinn Féin exhibit tougher attitudes towards refugees than supporters of other parties. Sinn Féin supporters are more likely than any other voters to believe it is not important to observe international obligations to protect refugees, more likely to be concerned that too many refugees are coming, more likely to believe there is a limit Ireland can cope with, more likely to believe there should be a cap on the numbers of Ukrainians and less likely to believe protests at direct provision centres should be banned.
It has previously been noted that Sinn Féin has been key to ensuring that anti-migrant sentiment does not find its way into the political mainstream here. On the basis of these numbers, that challenge will continue for the party leadership.
