The latest Irish Times/Ipsos poll points to a conflicted electorate, torn between our obligation to offer protection to refugees and our capacity to deliver due to the significant number of refugees that have come to Ireland since the invasion of Ukraine.
Interviewing for the poll took place between Sunday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,200 eligible voters. All interviews were conducted face-to-face by experienced Ipsos interviewers.
The electorate overwhelmingly supports our obligation to protect those at risk who make their way to Ireland, with 79 per cent agreeing we should meet our commitments.
A small minority of voters, 14 per cent, are not of the opinion that we should meet our international obligations. In percentage terms, 14 per cent is not a large number, but in population terms it adds up to many hundreds of thousands of voters who would opt out of our obligations if given a choice. Those preferring to opt out are over-represented among certain demographic and political groups, most noticeably those from farming backgrounds (24 per cent) and Sinn Féin voters (20 per cent).
While voters clearly recognise the obligation Ireland has to offer protection, they also question how open-ended this obligation should be.
The Irish Times/Ipsos poll asked voters to agree or disagree with a number of statements about how Ireland should respond to asylum seekers and refugees seeking protection here.
Two in every three voters (68 per cent) are concerned that too many asylum seekers and refugees might come to Ireland, up from 60 per cent in July of last year.
Concerns about our ability to cope with the recent wave of asylum seekers and refugees are shared across all population groups. Some cohorts are more concerned than others, most noticeably those aged 65 or older (77 per cent concerned), those from farming backgrounds (76 per cent concerned) and working-class voters (75 per cent concerned).
Attitudes vary by political party affiliation, with Sinn Féin (75 per cent) and Fianna Fáil (74 per cent) supporters notably more concerned than Fine Gael (66 per cent), Labour (55 per cent) or Green Party (35 per cent) voters.
On the question of whether there is a limit to the number of refugees Ireland can cope with, the vast majority (84 per cent) agree there is a limit. Furthermore, the weight of public opinion (71 per cent) is in the direction of putting a cap on the number of refugees coming to Ireland.
Whether Ukrainian refugees should be treated differently to others seeking protection is an open question with voters. At present 38 per agree that it is okay to take a different approach (up from 27 per cent), while 53 per cent disagree (down from 66 per cent).
This latest poll shows voters are eager to fulfil our international obligations but are concerned with our ability to manage the numbers involved. How we should express, or more correctly not express, these concerns is also a question on which public opinion is broadly aligned. A majority (70 per cent) do not believe protests should be allowed in front of direct provision centres, with 24 per cent in favour.
Interestingly, young people, who are relatively less concerned about the number of Ukrainian refugees coming to Ireland, are most supportive of protests in front of direct provision centres, with 34 per cent in favour.
International observers have often wondered why immigration had not surfaced as a concern among the Irish public in recent decades. Moving so quickly from a mono- to a multicultural society would likely have created tensions in other countries. No doubt Ireland will navigate the Ukrainian refugee challenge with the same moral compass that has brought us this far.
- Damian Loscher is managing director of Ipsos