New information has come to light on disputed building forecasts in files showing housing officials believed the target of 40,000 new homes would not be met until 2025, a year later than Government claims in the general election.
Following the poll on November 29th, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael returned to power with Independents after campaigning on the basis that housing output was on track to rise to 40,000 new homes in 2024.
When data published in January showed delivery actually fell to 30,330 last year from 32,525 in 2023, the Opposition claimed voters were misled.
Now internal Department of Housing reports show officials warning of “uncertainty” in the 2024 outlook – with the prospect of 40,000 deliveries cited for 2025 and not 2024.
“While commentators have downgraded forecasts for 2024, the uplift of recent years should be maintained, with delivery of 40,000-plus possible in 2025,” said a monthly report in October to then housing minister Darragh O’Brien.
The report set out 10 selected 2024 forecasts, with all but two below 40,000. Auctioneers Hooke & MacDonald were projecting 40,000 completions and website Daft.ie 35,000-40,000, but eight others were between 30,000 and 37,000.
“The Central Bank, ESRI and the Bank of Ireland have revised their projected 2024 new home completions downwards to be between 32,000 and 33,0000. Nevertheless, there is still uncertainty re the final output for this year,” the report said.
The Central Bank in September said output would drop to 32,000 but government figures continued to insist 40,000 new homes would be built.
The November report to Mr O’Brien made virtually the same points as October: “While commentators have downgraded forecasts for 2024, the uplift of recent years should be maintained, with delivery of around 40,000 forecast by many commentators for 2025.”
There was no comment on such records from Mr O’Brien, now Minister for the Environment, Climate, Energy and Transport.
The documents were released under the Freedom of Information Act.
While a separate FoI reply from the Department of the Taoiseach showed the Cabinet housing committee had no papers on housing delivery from the pre-election period, a Government spokesman said no meetings of the committee were scheduled after the Central Bank forecast.
“However, members of the Government discuss issues on an ongoing basis and there were 19 separate memos from the Department of Housing discussed at Cabinet between the end of September and January 2025,” the spokesman said.
“The Central Bank projections were amongst a number of housing projections made last year, and in previous years.”
The Cabinet housing committee was led before the election by then taoiseach Simon Harris and then tánaiste Micheál Martin. The other members were Mr O’Brien, then finance minister Jack Chambers, then public spending minister Paschal Donohoe and former ministers Eamon Ryan and Heather Humphreys.
The Irish Times sought “any papers on housing output projections” for the committee between September and January. “I wish to inform you that no record within the scope or your request has been identified,” the department replied, citing a “comprehensive” search.
A request for any papers to Mr Harris and Mr Martin on Central Bank forecasts and “any other briefing papers, reports or analyses” of housing output met the same response.
Replying to a request for ministerial files, the Department of Public Expenditure said “no relevant records were found”. The Department of the Environment, where Mr Ryan was minister, said “we cannot locate the records” sought. The Department of Social Protection, where Ms Humphreys was minister, said records “do not exist or cannot be found”.
The Department of Finance previously released October files in which officials said 2024 completions were likely to be “similar or below” 2023.
