Leaving Cert 2023: Is grade inflation slowing down or continuing unabated?

Has the pandemic changed the State exams forever? In 2020, the Leaving Certificate exams were cancelled and students were awarded calculated grades by their teachers. Grades soared and, with them, so too did CAO points. In 2021, students were given a choice in every exam between sitting the paper or taking a calculated grade; it was a year of bumper grades. Last year, grades continued to increase, albeit at a lower rate.

This year’s grades are largely in line with last year’s, on foot of a direction by Minster for Education Norma Foley to the State Examinations Commission that grades should be “no lower than 2022″.

Unwinding grade inflation is of course a challenge for politicians, educators and policymakers. At first glance, students might seem delighted by the prospect of higher grades. Points and grades had risen so much by 2022 that unwinding too rapidly could disadvantage the 2023 students, as those who achieved inflated grades in previous years and had deferred would be advantaged in the 2023 CAO mix.

For all the complaints about the way in which Irish is taught in school, the subject consistently has the highest number of top grades outside minority languages and music

The pressure this has put on high-points courses means that, for the past few years, this and other media outlets have highlighted stories of students who secured the points they needed for their course, only to miss out in a lottery. How fair is an exam where students work as hard as they possibly could, securing the points they need to get into their chosen course – and it’s still not enough?

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[ Grade inflation: a knock-on effect from the pandemic proving difficult to deal with ]

There’s no easy way out of this, and no obvious option that won’t negatively affect one cohort or another. But this year, Minister for Education Norma Foley told students that there would be “no cliff edge” and no automatic return to pre-pandemic grades for the Leaving Cert. So, the big question: are grades up, down, or about the same as last year? Bear in mind that in any given year, there is always some degree of fluctuation but, until 2020 at least, this has tended to be within a given range. All bets have been off since then.

Irish

For all the complaints about the way in which Irish is taught in school, the subject consistently has the highest number of top grades outside minority languages and music – subjects that tend to attract students who are already reasonably skilled.

This year has seen further grade inflation in Irish, with 15.4 per cent of 23,899 higher-level students securing a H1, compared to 12.7 per cent in 2022. Meanwhile, 21.9 per cent got a H2, up from 21 per cent last year, and H3 grades stay steady at 23.8 per cent. Unsurprisingly, this means that the number of H4 grades are down, falling from to 21.9 in 2022 to 21.2 this year.

At ordinary level, upper grades have also inflated. This year, 2.3 per cent of 22,852 candidates secured an O1, 13.5 per cent got an O2, 24.6 were awarded an O3 and 24 per cent an O4. This compares with, respectively, 1 per cent (O1), 10.6 per cent (O2), 26.3 per cent (O3) and 28.9 per cent (O4) in 2022.

English

English has always been one of the trickiest subjects to secure top marks in, largely because no marking scheme can quite capture the subjective nature of good or bad writing. On the plus side, however, it has always had one of the lowest higher-level fail rates.

This year, 43,275 sat the higher-level paper. Most of the higher grades are slightly up, but not much more than they might be in any standard, pre-2020 year. While the number of H1s rises by a relatively insignificant 0.2 of a percentage point in 2022 to 7.4 today, H2s are down from 17.8 to 17.4 per cent, H3s up very slightly from 28.8 per cent to 29 per cent and H4s go from 27.2 to 27.7 per cent.

At ordinary level, 4.1 per cent of 13,996 candidates secured an O1, compared to 4.7 last year, 16.7 per cent were awarded an O2, compared to 16 per cent last year, 29.6 per cent got an O3, compared to 28.7 per cent last year and 26.6 per cent got an O4, compared to 27.1 per cent in 2022.

Maths

Of all Leaving Cert subjects, maths has the greatest impact on CAO points – and thus college courses – because 25 bonus points are awarded to every student who gets a H6 or above in the higher-level paper.

This year, 20,516 students sat the higher-level paper, and there has been a remarkable and precipitous decline in the number of top grades, with H1s falling from 18.1 per cent last year to 10.9 per cent this year. This brings the number of H1 maths grades towards the pre-pandemic figure of 6.4 per cent in 2019.

The number of H2s and H3s are down, too, with H2s falling from 19.2 cent in 2022 to 16.7 per cent this year, and H3s down from 22.6 to 21.9 per cent. Although these students will still get their 25 bonus points, the decline in top grades is likely to exert some downward pressure on CAO points, although these may be offset by grade rises in other subjects.

There are fewer signs of grade inflation unwinding at ordinary level, however. Of the 33,220 students who sat the paper, 9.1 per cent took an O1 compared to 6 per cent last year, 23.8 secured an O2 (19.1 per cent in 2022) and 25.3 took an O3 (25 per cent last year)

Other subjects

There are some signs, in some of the most popular higher-level subjects, that grade inflation is being unwound slowly – or, at least, that the pace of grade inflation is slowing down.

In biology, 18.8 per cent of candidates got a H1 (17.6 per cent last year), 16.6 per cent got a H2 (17.4 per cent last year) and 16.6 per cent got a H3 (16.2 per cent last year).

In geography, 12.4 per cent got top marks (10.5 per cent last year), 19.2 per cent got a H2 (19 per cent last year) and, 23.8 got a H3 (23.4 per cent last year).

[ Leaving Cert results: How to get into college outside the CAO points race ]

In French, the number of H1s is up from 14.1 per cent in 2022 to 15.5 in 2023, H2s go from 17.9 per cent to 19.2 per cent and H3s fall from 20.8 per cent to 19.5 per cent.

In history, 15 per cent got a H1 this year (17.3 per cent last year,) 19 per cent got a H2 (23 per cent last year) and 22.1 a H3 (22.2 last year).

Minority language students continue to perform strongly, with 76.5 per cent of Portuguese students, 82.8 per cent of Russian students, 95 per cent of Croatian students and 91.6 per cent of Mandarin Chinese students securing a H1.