After several years of unprecedented grade inflation at Leaving Cert level, this was the year the bubble was supposed to burst.
Well, not burst, exactly – more of a quiet deflation, maybe.
Minister for Education Norma Foley said last year that students’ grades would reduce in “stages” over the coming years. The aim was to lessen any disadvantage Leaving Cert students would face when competing for college places against candidates with stronger results from previous years.
It turns out her plan to return to normal seems similar to St Augustine’s on chastity: yes, but not just yet.
In an unexpected move, she directed the State Examinations Commission (SEC) in July that this year’s results should be “no lower” on aggregate than last year’s.
It means that many of the 60,000-plus Leaving Cert students who will receive their results from 10am today are in line for a pleasant surprise: their results, on the whole, are equal to last year’s record-breaking set of grades.
The SEC has adjusted students’ marked scripts upwards by an average of 7.9 per cent over recent weeks as part of a “postmarking adjustment”. This process has resulted in 70 per cent of grades increasing.
A spokesman for the Department of Education said Ms Foley’s decision was about achieving “fairness” for a group of students whose education was badly disrupted during Covid. This is a cohort, for example, which never sat any State exam before.
On foot of the decision, this year’s students will not be at a disadvantage compared with thousands of students with inflated grades from 2022 and 2021 who are also in the hunt for CAO places.
There are, however, serious downsides to maintaining inflated grades.
For one, strong grades mean more students on high points and elevated points requirements for many courses. This also makes it harder for universities to differentiate between top candidates. We’ve even seen in recent years how some unfortunate students on maximum points – 625 – missed out on their chosen courses due to the use of random selection. We may well see a repeat of this next Wednesday when CAO offers are issued.
There is also the matter of the integrity of the Leaving Cert qualifications themselves. It is vital for grades to hold their value both for universities, which set minimum entry criteria for courses, and for employers who understand the distinction between grades when recruiting. Reliable grades mean that students get the opportunities they deserve. There is some concern in higher education circles, for example, that inflated grades may be one of a number of factors behind higher dropout rates in college.
In addition, there is a negative impact on students from outside the jurisdiction. Students in Northern Ireland are finding it increasingly difficult to access CAO courses in the Republic. That is because the profile of their A-level results are, almost, back to pre-pandemic norms. They are doubly disadvantaged as a result, given that the conversion rates for A-levels to CAO points aren’t generous, by any means. The same is true for international students hoping to study here, especially now that many EU students are looking to Ireland instead of the UK as the Brexit dust settles.
Department of Education sources say the issue of taking steps to deflate grades will be on the agenda in the context of the 2024 Leaving Cert results.
Will it happen? Who knows. No minister for education wants to be the bad guy who bursts the bubble and risks being seen as penalising one cohort of students over another.
Norma Foley’s decision to keep students’ Leaving Cert marks at a historic high goes to show one thing, at least: inflating grades is easy, deflating them is much harder.
