Q&A: How high will Leaving Cert grades climb this year?

How will Leaving Cert results be released this year?

It’s been a long and uncertain journey, but the end is finally in sight. This year’s 60,000 Leaving Cert students will be able to access their results online from 10am on Friday, September 2nd.

Schools, for the most part, will not issue results. Students are advised to visit the “candidate self-service portal” on examinations.ie which will allow candidates to view results and, over the coming days, see a more detailed breakdown of marks, apply to view scripts online and appeal grades.

Why are results so late?

Supermarket wines: Two great Italian wines to try

---

Brendan O’Connor brings his contrary streak to a cosy conversation about immigration

---

John FitzGerald: An attempt to buy the next election with a giveaway budget would be a gross miscalculation

---

US student protests: Democrats are worried this is 1968 again

---

Results, in normal times, issue in or around mid-August. The State Examinations Commission (SEC) says a number of factors are behind the delay this year.

They include a shortage of examiners, the staging of a second set of exams in July for Covid and other reasons — in addition to the Government’s decision to ensure this year’s results are, on aggregate, “no lower” than last year. This last step requires statistical adjustments, or what the SEC calls a “post-marking intervention”.

How high will this year’s Leaving Cert grades be?

This year’s grades will, on aggregate, be at least as high as last year. This is on foot of an instruction from Minister for Education Norma Foley, who was keen to ensure this year’s students would not be disadvantaged compared to last year’s.

So, what will that look like? Students’ results last year for higher level subjects were about 17 per cent in advance of those in pre-pandemic times, so we can expect a similar pattern.

Interestingly, the State Examinations Commission says it will increase results, on aggregate, to ensure they are no lower than last year. However, if results are higher than last year’s, it won’t decrease results. So, in theory, results could climb even higher than last year.

What will this mean for CAO points?

Higher grades have translated into significantly higher CAO points achieved by students.

For example, median points achieved by students rose from 350 in 2019 to 390 in 2020 to 420 in 2021.

This year, we can expect median points to be at a similar level to last year — that is, in the region of about 70 CAO points higher compared to normal times.

So, will CAO points for courses stay the same as last year?

Not necessarily. The supply and demand of course places is a key factor in determining the points level for entry into an individual course.

This year there has been a surge in applications for computing, environment, architecture/construction and arts/humanities courses this year. By contrast, nursing and some health-related courses show steep decreases. So, points will still rise and fall.

Will many courses involve random selection this year?

Random selection, or a lottery, is the method used by the CAO to award places when students with the required number of points outnumber the places available.

There was a big increase in the use of random selection in 2021 due to the strong grades awarded and the difficulties in differentiating between so many high-achieving students.

It was most common in high points courses: while random selection was used in just 8 per cent of courses overall last year, it jumped to just over 40 per cent among courses requiring 550 points or more.

Internal Government records state that the recurrence of random selection at this level is “highly likely” this year.

However, Minister for Further and Higher Education Simon Harris say an additional 1,000 college places this year will be targeted across high-demand courses, such as medicine. The hope is this will lead to fewer places being awarded on a random basis.

I can’t find accommodation. Can I defer for a year or choose a college place closer to home?

Students are entitled to seek a deferral of a place until September 2023. The best advice is to contact the relevant college or university as soon as possible after the results issue.

If you want a place closer to home, it is too late to change your list of course preferences at this stage. CAO rules do not allow an applicant to receive an offer of a course lower than the one your CAO points qualify you for. You could reapply next year, or look at what further education options are in your area.

I’ve applied to go to college abroad. Will the late release of Leaving Cert results pose a problem?

It shouldn’t, generally speaking. In the UK, UCAS — the equivalent of the CAO — has advised colleges to facilitate Leaving Cert students, while most European universities say they can accommodate the late release of results. There has, however, been at least one case in the UK where a university told a Leaving Cert candidate that it can no longer guarantee a place due to the late results.