Reconciliation and reunification should be pursued in parallel, conference told

Sometimes a moment that later appears significant can happen when the world is busy looking at other things - especially on a Saturday afternoon in Belfast’s Titanic Quarter when most people were taking the opportunity to enjoy rare summer sunshine.

Inside the nearby SSE Arena, somewhere between 2,500 and 3,000 people had travelled to be at the Ireland’s Future conference. In truth, the organisers sold nearly 4,400 tickets at £6.75 a head and had hoped that even more would come.

Ten thousand watched online, they said.

The campaigning group is unapologetically in favour of a united Ireland, arguing that planning should begin immediately - in fact, that it should have begun long ago - with a referendum to take place in 2030, even if more than a few of its supporters want it now.

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In most ways, the declarations of its avowed members and supporters on and off stage will have surprised few, if any, but the words of the southern politicians invited laid down tracklines that could be significant in the years ahead.

For the last number of years, the Irish Government has faced pressure from Ireland’s Future - and, most notably, from Sinn Féin - to become an active persuader for Irish unity, not just to sit the sidelines as an advocate for reconciliation.

Instead, largely at the direction of Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, it has opted for its Shared Island programme, one that has invested in cross-Border infrastructure, education and training and reconciliation measures.

Though it started deliberately slowly, Shared Island is now significant in cash terms, with a €1 billion budget behind it, and significant, too, in having overcome the objections of unionists at the outset to having anything to do with it.

Throughout his time in the Taoiseach’s Office, Leo Varadkar was the “greenest” of Fine Gael leaders, one often lauded by Northern nationalists and frequently loathed by Ulster unionists, especially those of a pro-Brexit mindset.

Freed from the confines of office, Varadkar has pushed his thinking a stage further, arguing as he did on the stage of the Ireland’s Future conference that the Irish Government should directly lead the campaign to bring unity about.

“What I hope we’ll see happen in the next government, no matter which parties are in it, that we’ll see what is a long-standing political aspiration towards unification become a political objective,” he told the conference, while in discussion with journalist Jim Fitzpatrick.

“It means actively working towards it, preparing the ground for it,” he went on, proposing that Dublin sets up a State fund now to put away money from current budget surpluses that will be necessary to pay for a united Ireland later, if it should happen.

Clearly relaxed now that the pressures of office have been left behind, Varadkar joked that he had not raised his funds idea with his successor, Simon Harris, or, just as importantly, with Minister for Finance Michael McGrath.

Such an outcome would change the face of politics on the island, if it happened. Politically, Varadkar may be past his high point, but his remarks put the focus on Fine Gael’s preparations for its general election manifesto.

So far, Varadkar’s successor, Simon Harris, has shown little appetite, saying on entering office that the aspiration towards unity is entirely legitimate, but would not be a priority for his administration. The future is another story, but he has few of Varadkar’s instincts.

However, the contributions of others who were invited north to speak in the SSE Arena may prove as noteworthy in time, such as Fianna Fáil’s Jim O’Callaghan, who insisted that his party’s “primary aim” is to bring about the unification of the island.

However, Labour leader Ivana Bacik was especially forthright, taking a few in the audience by surprise when she insisted that the next Irish Government should set up a department for unity to prepare, and to advocate, for it.

The likelihood of Labour being part of the next government in Dublin can be argued about, but there is little doubt that Bacik will have raised the bar for other parties if her pledge forms a key part of her party’s platform next time out.

Undoubtedly, there are many in Fianna Fáil – such as O’Callaghan and Kerry Senator Mark Daly – who bridle at the caution imposed by Micheál Martin on the issue over the last few years, but who may seize on Labour’s action now.

If Varadkar is right, and if the next Dublin government is proactively seeking unity, rather than simply arguing for reconciliation, then that will have a not-insignificant impact on the politics of the island, and between Dublin and London. There are a lot of “ifs” in all of this, admittedly.

People involved in Ireland’s Future and its supporters, who are heavily represented from Sinn Féin’s ranks, believe unity will happen “in our lifetimes”, in the words of one significant figure now in his late 40s.

Though it insists repeatedly that it wants to bring about reconciliation - that a united Ireland must be genuinely united - its policy document in March imposed several caveats that have been interpreted negatively.

In that report, it emphasised that there is no requirement under the BelfastAgreement to bring about reconciliation in advance, and that self-determination rights are already significantly limited by that agreement.

“Our view is that any such objective will only follow the transition to new constitutional arrangements on our shared island. Reunification is a reconciliation project,” that document declared, though the group argues that this is not an objection to reconciliation, but rather to it being used as a veto.

To be fair, the idea that reconciliation could offer a veto to unionists and loyalists opposing the calling of a referendum by simply refusing to engage in anything that would bring reconciliation about is one that is opposed not just by Ireland’s Future, but also by Varadkar.

“There are some people who say we shouldn’t pursue unification until reconciliation has been achieved. I don’t agree with that. I think you have to proceed in parallel,” the former taoiseach told the Belfast conference.

However, there are times when gut instincts in Ireland’s Future offer arguments to its opponents that it sees progress coming on the back of demographic change and a sectarian headcount, rather than by overcoming divisions in Northern Ireland’s society.

In a post on its official X/Twitter feed just three days out from Saturday’s conference, it declared: “People here are losing patience with the existence of Northern Ireland.” Predictably, the language used fed the arguments of opponents.

However, the words from the First Minister, Michelle O’Neill were striking in their clarity, urging supporters to be “an exemplar today for what we want tomorrow”, saying that she had told all Sinn Fein mayors elected in the North to “reflect that in your council chamber and your work as a representative of all the people of the city, of the concerns of women.

“Because we have to be an exemplar. We have to show people that there is something better for them all out there, that we are trying to build an island that is inclusive, that has equality at the core, that is for everybody. There’s a place for us all that. That the prize here is something better.

“And I absolutely think that that’s the conversation that we need to have. But we have to be what we want to achieve. So I think that’s the groups being confident their own skin. It’s about being generous. It’s about listening. It’s about hearing people have concerns. It’s about pointing out the opportunities that we can have. This can be a very exciting, I think, journey ahead of us. But I think those of us that are already convinced of the merits of unity need to continue to make that case and also be generous in terms of our actions, in terms of how we’re going to achieve,” she declared.

The well-funded campaign group is bringing opposing voices into the conversation, such as founding Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) member Wallace Thompson, and former Ulster Defence Association (UDA) leader David Adams.

Adams, in particular, did not spare the audience, who listened politely. In his view, Ireland’s Future, and, most especially, some of its supporters, need to do far, far more than it is doing to emphasise the need for reconciliation.

“But worse by far, some of your most vocal leading lights have from the outset been expressing their opposition to it. They obviously believe that unionist/Protestant votes won’t be needed in any Border poll,” he declared.

“Only a few weeks ago a leading light in this organisation strongly suggested in his weekly newspaper column that Taoiseach Simon Harris was in thrall to around 10 per cent of the population of Greystones, his hometown in Co Wicklow.

“And what was Simon Harris’s crime? The writer doesn’t think he’s enthusiastic enough about a united Ireland. And who are the 10 per cent who wield so much power and influence? Why, it’s the Church of Ireland citizens of Greystones.

“Now think about that for a second, coming as it does more than 100 years after Irish independence,” said Adams, who was deeply involved in the efforts in the early 1990s that led to the loyalist paramilitaries’ “abject and true remorse” ceasefire in 1994.

“Given all of this and more, an awful lot of Protestants feel that Ireland’s Future is on some sort of revenge mission – as in, let’s nail the Six onto the 26, and the Prods can either fit in or clear off back to England or Scotland.”

And Adams is no supporter of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, right or wrong, stressing that he will vote, if ever faced with the question about Irish unification, in the interests of his grandchildren, without fear, or favour to past loyalties.

Indeed, the former paramilitary has raised the bar significantly for those on the Republican side by his article last week in The Irish Times when he offered an unreserved apology for his involvement in the Ulster Defence Association during the Troubles.

Varadkar agreed. Apologies from Republicans have been issued in “general language, expressing sorrow that everyone suffered, but that will not be enough. I think if you’re going to start to change minds and hearts among partisan people then a much more stronger, specific apology for what was done is needed. That would help to change minds,” he told the SSE audience. The argument - both by Varadkar and by Adams - was heard politely by the hall, but there was little to show that anyone agreed with either of the two.

Sinn Féin figures were the most visible politicians at the gathering. Gerry Adams was in the crowd, but not in the audience; First Minister Michelle O’Neill enjoyed a premier place on stage, with Mary Lou McDonald filling a place on one of the many panels. Undoubtedly, much of the conversation in the hall centred on last week’s poor performance by Sinn Féin in the local and European Parliament elections, though campaigners insist that electoral blows will not impede the flow of history.

Elections, however, will bring the British Labour Party to power early next month in the United Kingdom, barring extraordinary outcomes, which changes the possible dynamics behind future pressure for a referendum.

Support in Northern Ireland for a united Ireland referendum, according to research done by academic Philip McGuinness, which rose significantly at the height of the post-Brexit battles, has fallen back in the wake of the Windsor Framework. Closer ties between London and Brussels with Sir Keir Starmer in No 10 Downing Street could reduce that Brexit-driven desire of people in Northern Ireland for a referendum even further, if ways are found to remove trade barriers that irritate unionists both on principal and practical grounds.

Varadkar, too, gave a warning to Ireland’s Future that a referendum before the support for its passage exists will damage unification hopes, citing the example of Quebec, where the vote was lost narrowly “but now nobody talks about it any more”.

However, Ireland’s Future is not alone in believing that Belfast Agreement rules, giving the Northern Ireland Secretary of State the power to make a subjective judgment on whether a referendum should be held, should be looked at again.

Varadkar agreed, arguing that the terms of the Belfast Agreement must be honoured, since Dublin cannot be seen not to be committed to its terms while calling on others to do so. But he went on: “What I think is wrong is there really isn’t any criteria as to what constitutes the right conditions.”

Calling for a conversation with London, the former taoiseach said the criteria that will be used by a secretary of state to make that judgment should be set out in ways that people understand. “At the moment, it’s too open-ended.”

In addition, the pro-referendum campaign was heartened by declarations about the cost of unity from Varadkar, but also from the Economic and Social Research Institute’s Prof Séamus McGuinness and American economist Prof Adam Posen.

The camp was infuriated earlier this year by a report from the ESRI’s own John Fitzgerald and Dublin City University’s Prof Edgar Morgenroth that unity could cost between €8 billion and €20 billion a year for 20 years.

“I don’t buy the idea that it would cost €20 billion a year or anything close to that, but there would be a cost,” said Varadkar, a point supported by the economists in a later panel debate, who argued that short-term costs would be outweighed by longer-term gains.

Though there is much evidence of progress in the last seven years, Ireland’s Future remains a very Northern-dominated organisation, though one that is now attracting a middle-class audience that it had not previously done.

Jarlath Burns, the South Armagh-born president of the Gaelic Athletic Association, clearly spoke for the gathering when he said that the next step should be to grant voting rights to people in Northern Ireland in the next presidential election.

Such a question, if pressed to a conclusion, could offer an early test of voters in the Republic, who have expressed on average 70 per cent for unity someday, but not necessarily that it should come quickly. Talk, as always, is cheap.