Loss of income would put almost half of voters off a united Ireland

The economic effects of a united Ireland on voters’ personal finances would have a crucial impact on their choice in any future referendums, according to the latest research.

Almost half of all voters in Northern Ireland who expressed a preference – 43 per cent of the total – said they would be less likely to vote for a united Ireland if it meant they would be £3,500 a year worse off.

Almost as many – this figure includes 23 per cent of voters from a Protestant background and a third (33 per cent) of voters who describe themselves as neither Catholic nor Protestant – 38 per cent of voters in Northern Ireland said they would be more likely to vote for a united Ireland if it meant they would be £3,500 better off.

[ North & South: Read all of the articles in the series ]

The findings in the Republic are strikingly similar when voters are asked about the impact of a potential blow to their financial circumstances. When asked how it would affect their vote in a unity referendum if they would be €4,000 worse off as a result, 44 per cent said this would make them less likely to vote in favour of a united Ireland. This includes 27 per cent who say it would make them “a lot less likely to vote for Irish unity”.

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While large numbers of voters say the economic effects of unity would have no bearing on their choice, today’s poll numbers show how crucial the economic questions would be in any unity referendums.

Less than a third of voters in the South (31 per cent) say that the impact on their finances would make no difference, while this rises to between 41 and 47 per cent in North, reflecting the greater importance of sovereignty issues there.

The opinion polls are part of the North and South series, a research collaboration between ARINS and The Irish Times. ARINS, Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South, is a joint project of the Royal Irish Academy and the Keough-Naughton Institute for Irish Studies at the University of Notre Dame. This is the second year of the collaboration between The Irish Times and ARINS.

The simultaneous, identical polls were taken by Ipsos B&A in the Republic and Ipsos in Northern Ireland, who conducted in-home interviews with more than 1,000 voters in each jurisdiction. The margin of error in each is estimated to be +/-3.1 per cent.

Respondents to the polls were also asked about one of the possible means of meeting the costs of a united Ireland. In this instance, voters were asked for their views on whether the Republic – which is currently running a large surplus in its public finances – should “invest 10 per cent of its annual budget surplus in a sovereign wealth fund set aside to prepare for a united Ireland”.

More than a third of voters in the Republic (36 per cent) agreed with the proposal, while just over a quarter (26 per cent) disagreed. Some 29 per cent said they “would like to know more about this idea before I came to a view”.

In Northern Ireland, 44 per cent of people are in favour of the proposal, while 28 per cent are opposed, and 16 per cent said they would like to know more. Almost a third (32 per cent) of voters from neither a Catholic nor Protestant background are in favour, along with 27 per cent of voters from a Protestant background. A majority of Protestants who express a view either way – 41 per cent of the total – are, however, against the idea.

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