Two approaches to Irish unity referendums: ‘work it out in advance’ vs ‘figure it out afterwards’

For those proposing, striving for and supportive of a united Ireland in the future, one of the biggest questions they face in these early stages of their campaign is whether a united Ireland should be worked out in detail in advance of the vote; or whether they should seek to win approval in principle, and then work out the details, perhaps over a period of years.

The latter option might solve the problem question of unionist involvement in the planning for the project. At present unionists – understandably – won’t participate in planning for something that they don’t want to see. So if there are to be worked-out plans for a united Ireland in advance of a referendum, they won’t involve unionist input – rather a drawback if its promoters want the new united Ireland to be inclusive and welcoming to unionists.

If the working out of the detail – the transition, the protections for the new unionist majority, the constitutional structure and so on – is left until after a united Ireland is approved in principle, however, it is much more likely that unionists would become involved, if only to make the best of a bad lot.

However, today’s poll suggests that the “work it out in advance” school of thought is the one that holds sway in both Northern Ireland and the Republic.

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Seeking to gauge the mood in both jurisdictions on “work it out in advance” versus “figure it out afterwards” – and also to clarify the choice of what “it” is – The Irish Times and ARINS drew up a series of questions that put two scenarios to voters: an “integrated” united Ireland and a “devolved” united Ireland.

The wording used in the survey was as follows: “An integrated united Ireland would mean that Northern Ireland would no longer exist as a political unit, and decisions would be made by an all-island parliament and government in Dublin”; and “A devolved united Ireland would mean Northern Ireland would continue to exist as a political unit, but as a devolved region within a united Ireland. Northern Ireland would keep its own assembly and power-sharing executive, and power over policy areas such as health, education and policing.”

Large majorities in both places want to work it out before the referendum; 69 per cent agree in Northern Ireland, and 59 per cent in the Republic. As Enda Kenny once said, Paddy likes to know

Of course, there are variations within these options. And there are other possible versions of a united Ireland, including a fully federal one, in which the North and the South were equal states within an Irish federation, with an all-Ireland federal government having powers over certain shared areas, and all other powers devolved to the two local administrations. This is not, however, an option that has been widely proposed. Respondents to the survey were offered the opportunity to specify any other version of a united Ireland, but the numbers doing so were tiny. So the results of the surveys are concentrated on the integrated/devolved options.

Constitutional convention

Voters were asked their preferences as between integrated and devolved options, and also whether they wanted to be told before referendums which model was on offer.

The alternative to knowing which model would be followed in advance was described in the questionnaire as follows: “Before the referendum, voters should be told that if there is a majority vote in favour of a united Ireland, then a constitutional convention, made up of people elected from across the island, would agree what type of united Ireland to create and implement.”

The idea for a constitutional convention is a construction of the questionnaire; however, in the event that a vote in principle is held and then the model is “worked out afterwards”, then some form of this process would clearly be necessary.

The responses of voters to these complex questions were clear: large majorities in both places want to work it out before the referendum; 69 per cent agree in Northern Ireland, and 59 per cent in the Republic. As Enda Kenny once said, Paddy likes to know.

But there the agreement ends: southern voters are much more in favour of the integrated united Ireland model, while voters in Northern Ireland prefer a devolved model. Preference for the devolved model is much stronger among voters of a Protestant background; a significantly higher proportion of Protestant-background voters say that they would find an integrated united Ireland “almost impossible to accept”.

These choices are mapped in the accompanying articles by Prof John Garry and Prof Brendan O’Leary.

[ Integrated vs devolved: two possible forms for a united Ireland that divide opinion North and South ]

[ Avoiding a rerun of Brexit by planning ahead ]

Of course, the results of the polls so far would suggest that the prospect of a border poll in Northern Ireland voting for a united Ireland is something that is a long way into the future, if indeed it happens at all. But the polls and focus groups also show that it is a live issue under discussion on the island now – so it is better to know as much as we can about the public’s views. Our series continues on Monday.