Hopes grow ‘unprecedented’ flu wave is close to peaking

Hopes are growing that this year’s “unprecedented” flu season is close to peaking though experts are predicting a “long tail” that will impact on the health service for several months.

The current flu wave will “probably” peak by the end of this week, according to Dr Scott Walkin of the Irish College of General Practitioners, though there is uncertainty around the modelling of disease patterns.

“We’re in for a few tough weeks in health,” Dr Walkin said, while adding there was “good news” in relation to viruses other than flu.

Rates of RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) were falling in all age groups, he said, while the number of Covid-19 infections was “probably falling”. The uncertainty arises from uneven reporting over the holiday period.

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Urging people in at-risk groups to avail of free flu vaccines, Dr Walkin pointed out that stocks of the nasal flu vaccine for children would expire on January 23rd unless used. He urged people with flu-like symptoms to stay at home in order to protect the vulnerable.

‘Chilling effect’

Dr Walkin also expressed concern about the “chilling effect” hospital overcrowding was having on some older patients who were reluctant to go to emergency departments.

The Health Protection Surveillance Centre is due to publish figures for flu infections in the first week of the year on Thursday. While these are expected to show a further rise in cases, it is thought figures may stabilise the following week. “There is going to be a long tail to this even if numbers peak in a week,” Dr Walkin said.

Children’s Health Ireland said the three Dublin children’s hospitals have been under “extreme pressure” due to the demand for service. “This is because of the high numbers of patients attending paediatric emergency departments and the number of very sick children already in these hospitals,” a spokeswoman said.

Almost 1,000 patients caught Covid-19 while in hospital last month as circulation levels of the virus surged, new figures show. There were 228 hospital-acquired Covid-19 infections in the week up to Christmas, 283 in the preceding week and 146 and 174 in the first two weeks of December, according to an update by chief medical officer Prof Breda Smyth.

Trolley figures

Hospitals remained under significant pressure on Wednesday, with the number of patients on trolleys virtually unchanged from the previous day.

There were 528 patients waiting for a bed on Wednesday morning, according to the count by the Irish Nurses’ and Midwives’ Organisation, down six on Tuesday. This is similar to the tally seen at other times of the year, Health Service Executive sources have pointed out.

There were 545 patients with Covid in hospital on Wednesday, down from 573 the previous day. This includes 35 in ICU, down one.

After nine days, University Hospital Limerick has stood down a “major internal incident” caused by unprecedented levels of overcrowding. However, day surgery in Nenagh, Ennis and St John’s hospitals remains cancelled as these sites are surge capacity for unwell medical patients. Reductions in elective work at University Hospital Limerick and Croom hospital also remain in place, as do visiting restrictions.