The treatment of data centres within the programme for government will be a litmus test for the next government’s commitment to decarbonisation. The current trajectory of data centre growth is increasing fossil fuel dependence and greenhouse gas emissions, jeopardising Ireland’s commitments to decarbonisation.
My recent report, Data Centres in the Context of Ireland’s Carbon Budgets, shows evidence that challenges the prevalent narrative that data centre expansion is compatible with the country’s legally binding climate commitments. The data shows that since 2015, virtually all of Ireland’s electricity demand growth has been driven by the rapid expansion of data centres. Rather than facilitating a green transition, data centres are causing greater fossil fuel use.
I estimated that between 2020 and 2023, corporate power purchase agreements for new wind energy covered only 16 per cent of the growth in electricity demand from data centres. Since 2017, every additional kilowatt hour of wind energy generated has been matched by the growth in data centre demand. This means that renewables have been serving demand growth, not displacing fossil fuels.
Even more alarming is the growing reliance on natural gas. To overcome local power constraints, data centres are increasingly seeking connections to the gas network. Gas Networks Ireland (GNI) projects that data centres with current connection agreements will consume three terawatt hours (TWh) of natural gas by 2031, resulting in 2.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions over the period between now and 2030, our first two carbon budgets. These emissions, which fall under the services sector’s carbon ceiling of 12 million tonnes, have not been fully factored into Environmental Protection Agency projections or the Climate Action Plan.
Dozens more data centres have made formal inquiries about gas connections – they collectively represent more than six times the capacity of those who have connections. Granting these connections could cause substantial growth in fossil fuel use, increasing energy security vulnerabilities and pushing us further off course to climate commitments. While there is a lot of uncertainty, this certainly poses a profound risk to carbon budgets and the mission to cut fossil fuel dependence.
[ The man in Data Centre Alley couldn’t conceal his shock: ‘You’re screwed’Opens in new window ]
Gas Networks Ireland is not currently granting these connections, as instructed by Minister with responsibility for energy Eamon Ryan, pending finalisation of the Commission for Regulation of Utilities’ (CRUs’) Large Energy Users Connection Policy. The strength of this policy in aligning demand growth with climate targets will test the strength of the climate law and the “legally binding” nature of the carbon budget.
Demand is growing at more than 20 per cent annually. Such rapid growth in any energy-intensive industry cannot come without trade-offs.
Proponents argue Ireland’s climate and infrastructure are well suited to data centres, and that curbing growth may push the industry to other regions, with worse environmental impacts. These narratives echo familiar debates around the decarbonising of livestock farming.
Prioritising enterprise policy over climate commitments by allowing data centres to expand fossil fuel use would set a dangerous precedent
However, the financial and environmental costs of ignoring carbon budgets are stark. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council warns that exceeding EU emissions targets could cost Ireland €20 billion by 2030. The Climate Change Advisory Council has also been clear on the urgency of reducing fossil fuel use now, as any overshoot in carbon budgets must be subtracted from future ones.
Meanwhile, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) has emphasised the need for demand reduction alongside deploying renewables and clean technologies, stating: “Ireland must make wise decisions on growth ... to ensure choices that fit within the ecological boundaries set by science.”
Aside from the moral and legal imperatives of climate action, failing to meet climate targets will cause greater costs and disruption into the future. And what message would exemptions for one sector send to other parts of society, who are being asked to change how they heat their homes, travel and how they farm?
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The rise of artificial intelligence suggests a new booming era of electricity demand growth, which may only be limited by the ability of physical networks and new power generation capacity to accommodate them. Ireland’s experience with data centres could foreshadow similar challenges globally. Prioritising enterprise policy over climate commitments by allowing data centres to expand fossil fuel use would set a dangerous precedent.
The facts are clear: unchecked data centre growth threatens Ireland’s climate goals and energy security. Those calling for a rethink of the data centre boom have been criticised for acting on flawed ideology and for a lack of rigorous analysis. These critics would benefit from honest self-reflection on the forces that govern their own ideology – one that prioritises economic growth above all else.
Hannah Daly is professor of sustainable energy at University College Cork