The Coalition was scrambling on Tuesday night to secure an agreement on key climate targets with fears that failure to find a solution could defer the decision until at least autumn on an issue of paramount importance to the Green Party.
Coalition leaders and Ministers were set to talk into the night on Tuesday and again on Wednesday morning in advance of a Cabinet meeting due to start at 9am. But one senior figure on Tuesday night rated the chances of a deal going to Cabinet as “slim”.
Talks on Tuesday to resolve a stand-off over the emissions target for the agriculture sector failed to find an immediate path forward. While some in the Coalition believe a pause is now needed, others fear there is a risk of damaging and divisive debates over the summer break if the issue isn’t resolved.
Speaking privately on Tuesday, a range of Coalition figures said there was a growing risk of no deal being agreed this week, potentially pushing the issue out until the next scheduled Cabinet meeting in September.
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One figure close to the talks said their confidence a deal could be done was diminishing daily, while a second Coalition source said the chances were no greater than 50-50. Another senior source said the issue needed “more work and de-escalation” and that a “pause” was required.
The political temperature was raised on Tuesday evening by an intervention from an influential environmental organisation piling the pressure on the Green Party to secure a deal at the higher end of the range envisaged in the Government’s Climate Action Plan of 22-30 per cent. Broaching the possibility of an early election, Friends of the Earth chief executive Oisín Coughlan said: “It wouldn’t surprise me if the Greens were prepared to fight an election on this issue, I doubt those Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael backbenchers looking for further concessions for agriculture are that keen on an election.”
Several senior government figures had signalled an openness to delay the decision, including Tánaiste Leo Varadkar. His comments were backed up by Minister of State Patrick O’Donovan, while Minister for Public Expenditure Michael McGrath said a further period of discussion might be needed.
However, other insiders pushed back against a pause, concerned that pressure would grow during August leading to divisive and damaging spats. “It would be less than ideal to not reach an agreement this week and the decision won’t be any easier in September,” said one senior Government source. Another said there was a desire among many senior figures to close the issue off, with a crowded agenda after the break.
Charlie Flanagan, the Laois-Offaly TD and former minister who signalled concern over farmers being scapegoated, said if there were difficulties between the parties “I wouldn’t like to see the issue festering over the summer”.
Part of the solution
Green Party Minister of State Malcolm Noonan suggested that results-based schemes that pay farmers to deliver for the environment should be considered as part of the solution.
The dispute centres on how much agriculture should be required to cut emissions between now and 2030, and how the reduction in the sector should be calculated. Sources indicated the range for an agreement was between 24-26 per cent.
The disagreement over recent weeks has exposed a deep chasm in the Coalition.
Last year the Government agreed that agriculture would have to cut its emissions by between 22 per cent and 30 per cent by 2030, a target that is now set down in law. Even the higher level of reduction was considerably less than other sectors, but farming organisations indicated that they could not go beyond the lower figure.
Failure to agree substantial reductions in agriculture, or targets that are seen as unrealistic in other sectors, would cause deep unease for the Greens.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have suggested that carbon mitigation measures which take place on farms, such as changing land use and generating electricity from solar and other methods, should be counted as part of the agriculture contribution, but as yet there has been no agreement on this.
