One-hundred-and-ninety-five countries, 29 agreements, 17 days and now five takeaways from the Cop30 climate summit:
1: Our addiction to fossil fuels continues
In 2023, countries agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels” but not much happened because although wind and solar installations are increasing at speed, rising demand for power is outstripping the energy they generate.
An attempt by almost 90 countries at Cop30 to reach agreement on a firmer, deadline-driven strategy to end the use of fossil fuels faltered.
The usual suspect, Saudi Arabia, opposed the initiative but so too did India and Russia. Smaller, poorer countries were also reluctant to support it because they don’t have the money and can’t attract the foreign investment needed to develop wind and solar.
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2. Money talks at climate summits
Climate negotiations are ultimately about money.
Countries with oil and gas don’t want to end their profitable production; developed countries don’t want to pay poor countries for wrecking the climate; investors are cautious about developing wind and solar when oil and gas are a sure sell; and poor countries don’t want loans to do the job because they can’t afford the repayments.
Last year, at Cop29, agreement was reached to dramatically increase climate finance from rich to poor countries to $300 billion annually by 2035 from public funds and to $1.3 trillion by adding private investment.
Little progress was made at Cop30 on how to build on this except for an agreement to keep talking about it.
3. Self-interest holds sway over science
In 2015 scientists said the planet was heading for almost 4 degrees of additional heating, making large areas uninhabitable.
With the actions taken since, under the Paris Agreement, the renewed prediction given at Cop30 was 2.6 degrees.
That’s still far too high. We’re currently at about 1.5 degrees and that has unleashed huge instability in climate patterns and increases in extreme weather, ice melt and sea level.
4. Individual countries and alliances can make a difference
Cop agreements require consensus by all parties but there was a strong sense of impatience in some quarters at Cop30.
Brazil floated the idea for accelerating fossil fuel phase-out, Colombia made the running on it and almost 90 countries including Ireland backed it.
Colombia will host an international conference next April to build momentum on it before Cop31.
Brazil launched the Tropical Forests Forever Facility – a public-private investment vehicle to pay countries with forests critical for cooling the planet to preserve them instead of felling them for timber, mining, crops and cattle.
Agreements were reached at Cop30 on 29 texts. They are often technical issues, but also cover the tricky Gender Action Plan which requires gender equality in climate action and finance initiatives, and on just transition.
Certain countries kept pushing, showing that energetic diplomacy can drive action.
Despite concerns there would be no overall agreement in Belém, a Global Mutirao was passed. It contains 58 points of agreement but essentially it “acknowledges that the Paris Agreement is working and resolves to go further and faster”.
5. Adaptation is where it’s at
Adaptation has been a lesser concern at Cops where the focus has been on reducing greenhouse gas emissions or mitigation.
But with extreme weather events increasing and global temperatures rising, the realisation has dawned that every country needs to protect its people, land and property.
At Cop30 Taoiseach Micheál Martin stressed the need for Ireland to adapt by speeding up construction of flood defences and reinforcing power systems after Storm Éowyn revealed their weaknesses.
Richer countries agreed at Cop30 to triple adaptation funding for poorer countries by 2035. While that is significant, agreement in 2021 to double it by 2025 has not yet been honoured.
